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BlackBook - Magic Millions Debutant Stakes 2022

Race 1 - 12:15PM Magic Millions Debutant Stakes (1000 METRES)

$175,000

1st $105,000, 2nd $31,500, 3rd $15,750, 4th $7,875, 5th $4,375, 6th $3,500, 7th $3,500, 8th $3,500.


Rail Position: True Entire Circuit

Track Name: Main

Track Type: Turf

Track Condition: TBC


FIELD

#1 ADEEM (4) - Tony & Calvin McEvoy | Damien Oliver

2YO Colt by Pride Of Dubai from Oohood

$240,000 from the 2022 MM Gold Coast Yearling Sale


#2 HEURISTIC (5) - James Cummings | Jamie Kah

2YO Colt by Street Boss (USA) from Admissible


#3 KING'S GAMBIT (6) - Peter & Paul Snowden | Blake Shinn

2YO Colt by I Am Invincible from Sultry Feeling

Half-brother to Dame Cartland, 4th in the Group 3 Widden Stakes as a 2YO.


#4 KIMMELA (2) - Edward O'Rourke | Damian Lane

2YO Filly by Vancouver from Good Time Girl


#5 PRINCESS DUHALLOW (1) - Ben & JD Hayes | Luke Nolen

2YO Filly by Shalaa (IRE) from Duhallow

$100,000 from the 2021 MM Gold Coast National Weanling Sale

$160,000 from the 2022 Inglis Premier Yearling Sale


#6 PURE PARADISE (7) - Lloyd Kennewell | Ethan Brown

2YO Filly by Capitalist from Impetuous

$260,000 from the 2022 MM Gold Coast Yearling Sale


#7 SHESALLSHENANIGANS (3) - Simon Zahra | Blaike McDougall 2YO Filly by Toronado (IRE) from Segenhoe Valley


There was only 10x nominations for this race, with those that didn't accept including I EFF OH (Lloyd Kennewell), ROUSSILLON (James Cummings) and SANDUAL (Andrew Bobbin).

 
ANALYSIS

A Donald jump out on Sep 12 saw Mount Olympus win just ahead of SANDUAL (2nd) with a massive gap back to ADEEM (3rd). SANDUAL and Mount Olympus led here with ADEEM in behind but ADEEM was no match in the straight, not responding to any riding and being left in their wake. SANDUAL went to the line with Mount Olympus, who started $8.50 SP on Saturday at Flemington but finished 8L last (8th of 8) having suffered a pelvic fracture, so we can’t use this as much of a form guide.

It’s worth mentioned that ADEEM is out of the I Am Invincible mare Oohood, a very very talented filly that was 3rd in the Blue Diamond, 2nd in the Golden Slipper and Sires Produce as a 2YO before winning the Flight Stakes and finishing 3rd in the Caulfield Guineas. He is extremely well bred.


SANDUAL (under the guidance of Dean Holland) and ADEEM (under the guidance of John Allen) then went to Flemington on Sep 22, finishing 2nd and 3rd again. Both of these runners were hard ridden from about the 350m mark of which both responded to the riding but didn’t exactly set the world alight. The winner clocked 58.76s.

PURE PARADISE finised 3rd on Sep 22. She travelled beautifully on speed until the final 200m or so as she was put under pressure but was no match for Charm Stone in 2nd (since 3rd in the Maribyrnong Trial Stakes) and Mount Olympus 1st, which ties back into SANDUAL’s jump out alongside Mount Olympus.

PURE PARADISE then had a tick over jump out on Monday on Oct 3 over 650m, winning ahead of I EFF OH who was having his first career jump out. I EFF OH went forward to lead and was put under pressure late, no match for PURE PARADISE who sat quietly on the outside of him before going over the top over the concluding stages.


HEURISTIC also jumped out on Sep 22 but in a different heat, finishing 6th (last) with Blake Shinn on board where the winner clocked 47.96s, so slightly quicker than the other heat. He was put under a little bit of pressure on the inside here and certainly wasn’t disgraced while being a bit green as well, making good ground past the line. He will take plenty of improvement into his debut here having only had that 1x jump out.

Also in that heat was PRINCESS DUHALLOW. She was in the white silks and never asked for an effort, travelling very quietly throughout but she wasn’t the strongest through the line. She took plenty of improvement into a second jump out on Sep 30, showing plenty of early speed to the lead before then kicking away around the bend to win very comfortably in 49.58s. The second jump out was super.

Also jumping out on Sep 30 was SHESALLSHENANIGANS, who won her heat very comfortably in 49.10s. She won in similar fashion, showing plenty of early speed as the big baldy face went straight to the front and won very comfortably without ever being put under pressure. She showed similar early speed in her first jump out on Sep 16 but was no match late when fading slightly into 4th place, with all three place getters running on Saturday being Aditi (since 2nd), Beluga Express (since 4th) and Karakrib (since 6th). She hasn’t been put under any pressure yet so not sure if there is anything under the hood…

KIMMELA and KING’S GAMBIT come down from Sydney.

KIMMELA was 3rd in her trial over 850m, the winner being Platinum Jubilee who won the Gimcrack and Divine Glory in 2nd place, who ran 3rd in the Gimcrack as well, which is certainly handy enough trial form. She sat behind these two on the rail as she didn’t quite have the early speed, but as they rounded the bend she didn’t have much room to move, held up for a couple of strides before then having to pick back up and closing quite well. She was solid through the line as well in a very encouraging trial.

KING’S GAMBIT trialled over 789m at Warwick Farm, winning his trial. He showed handy gate speed but was no match for the early leader early, sitting just off the pace before showing a nice turn of foot over the concluding stages to get up over the top and win. He clocked 33.82s for his L600m, which was above average for the morning.


SELECTIONS
  1. KING’S GAMBIT

  2. PRINCESS DUHALLOW

  3. SHESALLSHENANIGANS

  4. ADEEM


We had KIMMELA on top but she's been scratched. As a result, think this is a nice two bet play where we play one that will likely be leading and the other that will likely be coming over the top late.

Luke Nolen will likely get PRINCESS DUHALLOW to kick up from barrier 1 to lead, similar to her latest jump out at Flemington, and attempt to slip them around the bend. Her latest jump out was actually quite good.

Then with her leading, expecting KING'S GAMBIT to be the one to sit off them from barrier 6 and look to close over the top late, similar to his trial where he closed over the top when asked for an effort.


SHESALLSHENANIGANS has done nothing wrong in her jump outs but it's hard to know what is under the bonnet considering she's never been asked for any sort of effort. Regardless, it's hard not to include that big baldy face, especially from barrier 3 that should have her right there from the get go. She's the third pick but prefer to be with the other two.


Couldn't have HEURISTIC, plus Damien Oliver usually always rides the Godolphin 2YO's in these early races but instead rides ADEEM here and it's not hard to see why. ADEEM jumped out well in his latest but it's hard not to think about that first jump out where he was left behind and ordinary. Not sure where PURE PARADISE gets to from barrier 7 of 7 and hasn't been a stand out at the jump outs - happy to risk.

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