Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 9 September 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.
SWAN HILL - Race 1
Lindsay Park look to be gearing #1 ANGRY SKIES up to be firing on debut, winning all three of his jump outs now this preparation. He led from start to finish in his Aug 12 synthetic jump out prior to Aug 19 where he sat behind the leaders before responding to the urges and extended away over the concluding stages, going on with it past the line. His win in Heat 8 on Sep 2 was similar to his first jump out, leading and cruising to the line under no pressure. He looks a nice moving Toronado colt that’s worth keeping an eye on for his debut.
We've started up a Telegram Channel (for Updates) and Group (for Chat) so that we can send notifications and early updates etc. plus also just have some general racing banter and chat in the group. You don't have to join, but we would recommend it...!!
Follow the steps below:
1. Download Telegram on your device using the following link: https://telegram.org
2. Join the "BlackBook Updates" channel using the following link: https://t.me/+4gAUzhHXzrU4OTQ1
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Swan Hill, Race 1
#1 ANGRY SKIES (6) - B & JD Hayes
His jump outs were super and with the scratchings of his main dangers, it looks a matter of whether or not he handles the Heavy track. If this was a Good track, he'd be a High confidence bet but too often horses fail on debut simply due to not handling the Heavy track.
In saying that, the rest of the field need to handle the track and if he can handle it as well or better than them, he should be winning this - around ~$3 looks about the right price.
Last Updated: 8:18am on Friday, 9th September 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
682x runners | 206x winners (30%) & 215x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.25 WIN $2.30 PLC
976x runners | 225x winners (23%) & 268x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.48 WIN $3.06 PLC
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):