BlackBook - Friday, 9 December 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 9 December 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
MOE - Race 2
#5 HOOFS DON'T LIE (2) - B & JD Hayes
Very keen to follow HOOFS DON’T LIE first up. We mentioned him following his Nov 11 jump out on the synthetic track where he cruised to the line to finish 2nd alongside some handy enough gallopers, with One Reason a good distance back in 4th place who then won a maiden following this. His work in Heat 11 on Nov 25 was just as good, sitting off the very speedy Idris throughout the heat with that galloper ultimately winning in the clear fastest time of the morning. He held on well and put a big gap on 3rd here too, a very good jump out that would have seen him win any other on the day. He was 3rd on debut behind Thron Bone and Ghaanati before finishing 5th to Giga Kick, which is very handy form so add that to his slick jump outs and the ultimate gear change of being gelded over his break, he should be awfully hard to beat in any maiden first up.
CRANBOURNE - Race 8
#11 TRUE PATRIOT closed superbly from the back to win Heat 10 on Nov 14, just ahead of PRIDE OF GALWAY who was far from disgraced after leading throughout and cruising to the line in his first jump out this preparation. Now a 4yo gelding, he looks to have come back in order so happy to follow him into a second jump out before resuming.
#11 TRUE PATRIOT is in super order ahead if his return to the races having finally broke the maiden two starts ago. Although he didn’t win Heat 13 on Dec 5, he was under a ridiculous hold throughout the 1000m jump out and easily could’ve won this had he of been asked to extend. His Nov 14 jump out was super as well and he looks in really good order.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Moe, Race 2
#5 HOOFS DON'T LIE (2) - B & JD Hayes
He's got form behind Thron Bone and Giga Kick. He's been given time, had 2x super JO's and been gelded.
I think we keep this very simple - a maiden at Moe with barrier 2, he should just simply win this.
He was $2-$2.20 when we messaged in Telegram yesterday, that comes down to $1.94-$2.13 after deductions, so we should be on at a nice price. If you're not on, play the SP.
Cranbourne, Race 8
#11 TRUE PATRIOT (12) - N Burke
This looks a lovely kick off point for him, a 1400m BM58 at his home track. The issue is the wide draw, but suspect he gets back anyway and looks to run on late, similar to his jump outs, so it might not be a worry.
The $15 we got on Ladbrokes/Neds yesterday comes down to $13.80, which is a nice price. If you're not on, look to play late around that ~$10 mark.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Moe, Race 4
#1 DISTROTED (11) - S Eden
#11 ELLY DEE (1) - J Sadler
DISTORTED has only had the 1x jump out this prep but it was a really nice bit of work on Nov 7 when travelling wide throughout and closing really well under his own steam to finish 3rd to Mugen (since 2nd at Sandown) and Sonora. He's been scratched from 3+ races over the last couple of weeks with shit barriers and although he's drawn shit again here, he's jumped out the best.
We were on ELLY DEE on debut where she ran 2nd to Musashi who has since won again - they gapped 3rd that day. The 4kg claiming apprentice in Tom Prebble takes the ride here and from barrier 1, it could be a touch problematic. We're taking her on with that kind of set up but in saying that, she'd be a bet in most other races, which is why we're saving on her.
Bets: backing DISTORTED for a ½ stake (collect 2%/2U) and saving on ELLY DEE to breakeven.
Canterbury, Race 2
#2 HI DUBAI (12) - G Waterhouse & A Bott
BlackBook trial comments:
HI DUBAI has been doing what Tim Clark and Gai Waterhouse often do, lead from start to finish. The 3yo Highland Reel filly was too speedy in a Nov 8 trial over 850m and that was no different over 896m here in Trial 18 on Nov 29, however, she was challenged a bit more and did responding to some riding to clock solid time for the morning. Expect similar on debut.
No bet recommended.
Last Updated: 8:30am on Friday, 9th December 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 700x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 223x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.13 WIN $2.29 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1082x runners | 262x winners (24%) & 296x placings (52%)
Ave Betfair SP | $11.97 WIN $2.99 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 38x runners | 24x wins (63%) & 8x placings (84%)
Medium Confidence: 75x runners | 31x wins (41%) & 19x placings (67%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 67x runners | 12x wins (18%) & 23x placings (52%)
Low Confidence: 12x runners | 4x wins (33%) & 3x placings (58%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):