BlackBook - Friday, 8 October 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 8 October 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


CRANBOURNE - Race 2

OTHER

#12 FABRIKKA should be ready to make her return to the races now and be competitive first up. Following a well held together Sep 10 jump out, the now-3yo filly went to the line alongside the 65-rated 5yo Fiery Red in Heat 11 on Sep 17 (white) and although given more of a push, she pretty much matched motors with him. She sat 2L or so off the speed throughout before being given a push to go up alongside Fiery Red and even in front past the line. She looks to move well and come back improved as a 3yo. Happy to follow her into (hopefully) a country mid-week maiden.


#12 FABRIKKA had another jump out, finishing 2nd in Heat 13 on Sep 28 over the 1000m and it wasn’t the most convincing jump out. She was hard ridden throughout the straight, given the whip and all but never really made any ground on the leader or put any ground on those around here. In saying that, those around her were BM70 level and she’s a maiden, while this was the fastest 1000m heat of the morning. She can still go well first up but it’s not going to be a high confidence play.

#15 DELICIOUS TYCOON was smashed in betting first up ($2.70 SP), but ran really poorly. Immediately spelled, her return Aug 9 trial was also only fair but her jump out in Heat 5 on Aug 25 (black) was super as she closed from the back to finish 2nd. Not sure what to make of her work but she clearly goes alright when she’s up and going. One to watch for.


#15 DELICIOUS TYCOON was absolutely massive in Heat 5 on Sep 8. Having closed super from the back on Aug 25, the 3yo filly did similar here as she was heavily restrained out the gates and throwing the head around as a result. She would’ve been a good 10L off the leaders, was given a push in the straight without being hard ridden and managed to finish less than 1L off the winner and was in front past the line. Huge run here and a couple of really nice jump outs. Hopefully she can live up to the expectations that were on her on debut as she started a $2.70 favourite.

CRANBOURNE - Race 3

OTHER

#5 PHASE TWO is clocking some really slick jump out times. Was 2nd to La Rocque on Feb 17 and then won on Mar 3 in really slick time. Given time, he returned to lead from start to finish in Heat 7 on Aug 19 in a slick time for the morning. He resumes here with J Welsh, so must be having some barrier issues. One to be mindful of, has a stack of speed.

#5 PHASE TWO showed his speed again, finishing 2nd in Heat 8 on Aug 30. He’s going to take some catching on debut.


While all eyes were on Pinstriped and Duty Dynasty in Heat 5 on Sep 20, thought #6 THE HASS was another one that travelled quietly and comfortably throughout. The 3yo colt was 5th in a Sep 6 jump out, but was well held on the inside and looked to move alright. Likewise here, he travelled well when finishing 3rd and probably would’ve won any other heat on the day considering the time they clocked. One to keep in mind.

 
OUR THOUGHTS / BETS

Cranbourne, Race 2 - FABRIKKA & DELICIOUS TYCOON

Looks as though DELICIOUS TYCOON makes the field here as third emergency and L Neindorf taking the ride from barrier 6. Her first up run is the best last start benchmark rating coming into this and it's also the best peak benchmark rating of any of the raced in the field.

FABRIKKA's latest jump out has really dampened our confidence and we're not to keen to back her at the price as a result.


DELICIOUS TYCOON at $10 looks to be a bet with a saver on FABRIKKA to breakeven - low confidence race, but we don't have to outlay a real lot at the prices.


Cranbourne, Race 3 - PHASE TWO & THE HASS

THE HASS finished 3rd to Pinstriped (won by 4L on debut) and Duty Dynasty (since 7th in a BM64 despite being ~$3.50), which is nice enough form for a race like this. Barrier 10 isn't great, but he can settle just off the pace and should get some clear galloping room the straight as a result. He's opened a nice price and looks good enough for an early bet.

PHASE TWO has been recording some really nice jump out times but think he might just be a jump and run type that looks good in jump outs but doesn't quite translate to race day - expect him to lead (or at least be on speed).


Of the others, MY YANKEE GIRL was very hard held in a recent trial and a win certainly wouldn't shock. Likewise TELEGRAPH who has also jumped out well. A win can't be far away for DOLLAR CHASER who we have been on in his first two starts.


We're still happy to have a bet on THE HASS at the price (~$7.50) if you didn't get the early price of $12+. We know that Julius Sandhu and Beau Mertens is a profitable combination and a debut at the home track looks a good kick off point for this gelding.

Not too keen on PHASE TWO, but we could have a saver to breakeven at the ~$10. Don't have to outlay a lot to get a nice return here - low confidence but more confident on this race than R2.


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