BlackBook - Friday, 8 July 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 8 July 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
CLICK HERE TO SEE OUR BLACKBOOK SUMMARY
SALE - Race 2
The gelding looks to have flicked a switch for #14 PRINCE OF CAIRO, taking out Heat 9 on Jun 27 over the 760m comfortably with a gap back to 2nd. The 2yo gelding was 2nd in last weeks Jun 20 jump out over 850m, going to the line behind All Black with a big gap back to 3rd place and the rest of the field. He was disappointing on debut when beaten 7L (at an SP of $7.50) but as mentioned, the gelding might have done the trick and this son of American Pharaoh has now put together two nice enough jump outs ahead of his resumption to suggest he can go well first up.
SALE - Race 3
We were on #4 SYSTEMIC on debut back in October when he finished a closed 2nd as a $2.30 SP favourite, where he was spelled and given more time. He returned in a May 27 jump out where he was quietly ridden, improving into his second jump out where he took out Heat 13 on Jun 24 well in nice time. He won ahead of the 65-rated Green Flash and Jupitus in a nice return performance. The Capitalist gelding is a half-sister to the Group 1 winner Mizzy, so if he can be half as good as his sister, he’ll win some races and based on his jump outs, he certainly can win a maiden.
Confidence - Comments
Sale, Race 2
#14 PRINCE OF CAIRO (6) - R Griffiths & M d Kock
Think he's a really good bet here at a big price - the 2x jump outs have been super and he draws nicely with barrier 7. Craig Newitt jumps on board this morning after the stablemate was scatched - the $21+ looks a good bet and we don't have to outlay much to get a nice return.
Sale, Race 3
#3 SYSTEMIC (10) - B & JD Hayes
We're keen on Aminikii in R6, which ties into I'm Innocent here who would've won last start if not held up - have him as hard to beat here. Think Systemic is an E/W chance, the wide barrier is the issue and Luke Nolen jumps off - not too keen to play.
Sale, Race 6
Sale, Race 6 - THE GREAT HOUDINI & AMINIKII
THE GREAT HOUDINI beat Thalursian (who then won by 2L) and gapped 3rd by 2L that day. They ran 1:08.27s, which was only slightly slower than the BM64 later that day at 1:08.22s won by Rock Artist (who then won a Sandown BM64 at his next start). He clocked the meetings fastest L600m/400m and second fastest L200m in the process.
AMINIKII ran 2nd to the very talented Inundation on debut (that horse has won his next two starts by 3.2L and 3L respectively), beating home Devil’s Fiddle by 1.25L with that runner winning her next start by 2L. She then broke her maiden, defeating Kaido (who won by 2L next start) and I’m Innocent (since 2nd MDN but should’ve won when held up). He ran 1:05.52s, which was slightly slower than the BM64 later that day won by Mimosas at 1:05.49s.
Ratings wise on PuntingForm, AMINIKII has the best last start rating at -0.8 (debut rated -1.1) and THE GREAT HOUDINI has the second best last start rating at +3.2.
STELVIO has only had the 1x jump out on May 27, while THE HASS was in that Rock Artist race that THE GREAT HOUDINI matched for time.
This looks a really good 2-bet play for even returns for THE GREAT HOUDINI ($4.40) and AMINIKII ($7) on TopSport.
UPDATE (Friday, 10am): they're now into ~$4 equal favourites on TAB, so very happy with our early prices and expecting one of the two to win - good luck to everyone who's on!
Last Updated: 9:04am on Friday, 8th July 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
669x runners | 201x winners (30%) & 211x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.28 WIN $2.31 PLC
876x runners | 196x winners (22%) & 238x placings (50%)
Ave Betfair SP | $13.00 WIN $3.13 PLC
Recommend having a read of the below from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):
When you sign up, select 'JumpOuts' for how you Heard About them and "JUMPOUTS" in the Promo Code.
Confidence levels will be as follows:
Low = not keen to bet.
Low/Medium = can win but not confident - small bet (if any at all).
Medium = one of the main winning chances - can bet.
High = very good winning chance - keen to have a bet.
Special = very keen, should be winning.
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