BlackBook - Friday, 8 April 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 8 April 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
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WODONGA - Race 2
OTHER
#5 BANKROLL has started as an odds-on favourite in both of his career runs but just wasn’t quite up to it. He was tipped out and notably has been gelded as well, returning in Heat 13 on Mar 11 where he was ridden quietly out the back with not much room to move. Looks to move well, so we’ll keep an eye out for another jump out before resuming as a gelding.
*we won't be backing, he can win without us - latest jump outs were only fair and while comes into barrier 8 of 8 (from barrier 15 of 16), we won't be taking ~$1.35*
WODONGA - Race 7
OTHER
#4 BELL’S INNOCENT bolted in over 1200m in Heat 1 on Mar 23, clocking the clear fastest 1200m time of the morning in the process. The 6yo gelding is resuming from a 10-week let up having changed stables to Donna Scott. This was a nice bit of work.
CRANBOURNE - Race 2
OTHER
Blinkers on for #3 FORBES, who is still a colt despite only having the one placing from five starts, which came on debut when he was just beaten by Anamoe. The stable clearly have an opinion of him and they’ll be really hoping he can finally live up to his potential in his third career preparation. He was quietly ridden in a Feb 16 jump out, but the blinkers looked to do the trick as he won Heat 7 on Mar 16 over 1000m comfortably under no jockey pressure at all.
CRANBOURNE - Race 3
OTHER
We were on #2 GIRELLO (black) first and second up and he was quite disappointing, especially second up. Looked as though the blinkers went on in Heat 8 on Mar 28 and he travelled comfortably throughout, going to the line well. Would consider having a small play on him third up if we get the blinkers on and a change of jockey at a nice price.
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OUR THOUGHTS
Cranbourne, Race 2
THE HASS ran 2nd to Hongbao first up at Geelong over 1109m with a 4L gap back to 3rd, with Hongbao since running 3rd at Sandown. That run rated +2.2 and is the best last start rating of the race and the second best peak rating of the race.
FORBES gets some gear changes with the cross-over nose band and stallion chain go off while the blinkers and blindfold go on. He is still a colt with Jamie Kah making her way to Cranbourne for only the 1x ride on him.
Looks a race between two for us - FORBES and THE HASS the top two picks with FEUDAL EMPIRE (scratched from Pakenham on Thursday) probably the only other that's a chance before the race drops away. It's a hard race to place with those top two being $2.50 and $2.80 in most markets - going to be a watch and see race, unfortunately.
Cranbourne, Race 3
IS THIS LOVE scratched again, so it seems as though they're certainly looking for the right race to get a win and weren't confident they could knock off THE ECONOMIST here. She's now been scratched from Pakenham and here this week.
THE ECONOMIST was last seen running 2nd by 0.8L at Sandown to Straight Arron, who has since gone on to win a Group 3 at Randwick, which is super form for a race at Cranbourne. His 3x runs have rated +4.6, +0.8 and -3.8, all of which would have him very hard to beat here and with barrier 5, he's drawn to get a lovely run and be every chance. His jump out on Mar 15 was super too and he is the one to beat here.
We were on GIRELLO in his first two starts and he's let us down. Opened $26 here and has been very well supported in the early markets but he's going to have to improve to beat some here with some nice exposed form. The step up from 1200m to 1300m looks to suit and he's probably a place chance.
THE ECONOMIST is going to be very very hard to beat but won't be diving into $1.45 to back him and at the same time, don't want to be backing GIRELLO as (on form) he likely fills the placings.
OUR BETS
No plays. Total outlay is 0.00 units.
If you haven't yet seen, we've had an early bet at Caulfield on Saturday --> check it out here.
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +9.51 units at Recommend Price | +42.77 units at Betfair SP
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