Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 7 October 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.
CRANBOURNE - Race 4
#12 TROPICCONI was the clear take away from Heat 8 on Sep 21. She was away last, settling in the second half of the field but was then shuffled back to last as they rounded the bend - she went wide but had to dart back to the inside to get a run and closed super to finish a very close 2nd after making up a lot in the straight. She was quietly ridden in a Sep 5 official trial, but won a jump out back on May 11 ahead of Thron Bone at Caulfield in the second fastest time of the morning. The $140k daughter of Nicconi looks talented and we’re keen to follow into a debut.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Cranbourne, Race 4
#12 TROPICCONI (5) - M Laurie
Expecting her to be hard to beat here - drawn beautifully and there isn't too many dangers post scratchings. There has also been good form from her official trial when 3rd with Beswizzled (4th) and Tom Rocks (5th) since winning MDN's.
Very glad to see Port Albert SCR and Ethan Brown was booked to ride this filly and the Maher/Eustace horse who is also scratched, so we're left with only really LADY DI DI (with that Katsu form) as the danger. Happy to risk that and play our filly, she's the top winning chance and will go very well - happy to take the the ~$3.
UPDATE: there has been a lot of rain and we now have a Heavy track, which has resulted in a stack of scratchings. We're down to a 6-horse field. She handled the wet in her JO's & Trials so shouldn't be an issue here - if she handles the wet, she should just win now with all dangers scratched.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Port Macquarie, Race 3
#10 ALIBI DOT COM (8) - G McFarlane
Slick trial on Aug 29 over 800m at Gosford, leading along the rail alongside Short Shorts where they opened up a big 5L gap back to 3rd. Short Shorts got the better of her late, but she was under no pressure while Short Shorts was ridden out - that runner won a BM72 first up over 1300m and then was 2nd in a BM78 over 1400m second up.
She then trialled on Sep 12 over 800m at Newcastle, finishing 2nd again but this time to Chassis. The 4th horse in Pacheco has since ran 3rd in a BM58 and they clocked nice time for the morning.
Considering she’s started $1.80, $1.80, $2.25 and $5 in her four career starts, the $10+ here first up looks overs and on the back of some nice trials, happy to have a bet.
Last Updated: 1:46pm on Friday, 7th October 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
689x runners | 210x winners (30%) & 218x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.21 WIN $2.30 PLC
1016x runners | 238x winners (23%) & 278x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.35 WIN $3.05 PLC
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):