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BlackBook - Friday, 7 July 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 7 July 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


SALE - Race 3

GRAEWAZI is certainly ready to head to the races now, winning Heat 6 on Jun 22 in super fashion over the 900m to go with his May 24 win 2nd placing on Jun 6. The 3yo gelded son of Our Wazi had plenty of early speed that allowed him to find the front early where he was then put under pressure at the top of the straight, skipping away quite comfortably and opening up a margin with the jockey even having a cheeky look over the shoulder over the concluding stages. He’s going super and looks in good order ahead of his debut where we’d expect him to be competitive.

GRAYSONG made it 2 from 2 at the jump outs this prep, winning Heat 6 on Jun 26 as he travelled nicely on speed and closed off well to win and hold off previous winners in Pink Cashmere and Boldinho. He was a nice winner in his return jump out on Jun 14 with both jump outs coming on Heavy tracks where he looked to handle it okay but will certainly be better on top of the ground as his first two career runs suggested. His latest run at Moonee Valley when 3rd reads super now with six of the seven runners that didn’t win, all winning since. He’s got a maiden win in him this prep.


SALE - Race 4

REDOUTE’S NIGHT is a now 5yo gelding returning for his first jump out having been last seen winning a jump out back on Jul 12 in 2021, so he’s clearly had some issues but connections have clearly been patience and must be of the opinion that their patience is going to pay off at some point. His by Night Of Thunder out of a Redoute’s Choice mare, hence the name, and returned in Heat 3 on May 15 where he was the only runner without a career win. He cruised out the back and went to the line untouched in a nice bit of work that we think is worth keeping an eye on him into another jump out.

REDOUTE'S NIGHT cruised to the line out the back in a May 15 jump out amongst some raced horses, but there was no hiding him in Heat 2 on Jun 12 as he tracked Katsu throughout and then was powering to and through the line while making ground on Katsu and going past No Way Ever and Corkscrew with ease while under a hold. Adding to this while watching past the line, he was still powering and even got past Katsu late in a superb bit of work while they also clocked the fastest time of the morning. He’s an un-raced 5yo gelding but on the back of this jump out, think we’ve seen the reason as to why they have been so patient with him and it looks like they’re about to be rewarded. Cindy Alderson also purchased his half-sister at the 2022 Inglis Gold Yearling Sale, so no doubt they have an opinion of the family as well. He’s a must follow, he looks very talented and especially for a country maiden that he’ll go to on debut (and likely win).

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Sale, Race 3

GRAEWAZI is the half-brother of Barb Raider and looked good in all three jump outs this prep, in particular the latest over 900m on the Heavy10 track. We have him on top here as the one to beat.

GRAYSONG has always looked solid at the jump outs and is a well bred gelding with some talent, he gets the winkers on here from his debut prep which was solid form wise. He’s drawn a touch wide and may have his work cut out for him as he will go forward, albeit being a chute start at Sale for the 1100m.


GO TO HOLLYWOOD has looked fair at the jump outs without setting the world alight and think he’s a touch below our two BlackBook runners. The field then drops away, as the market suggests with the fourth line of betting at ~$15.


Backing GRAEWAZI here and saving on GRAYSONG to breakeven.

#4 GRAEWAZI (8) - J Hunter

Low/Medium.

#5 GRAYSONG (11) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

Low/Medium.

Sale, Race 4

#6 REDOUTE'S NIGHT (14) - C Alderson

High.

Super keen here, think he should be winning this and will be betting. His jump outs have been superb and against the more experienced horses that have wins on the board, including Katsu at his latest which was on a Heavy10 track.

This is a very very winnable race with no stand outs in terms of form or resuming from jump outs, let alone to the calibre of his jump outs.

The only real query is barrier 14 of 14 but it's a chute-like start at Sale with only the one half turn, so he should be fine and expecting Benny Allen to give him every possible chance.


Think he starts closer to $1.50 than $2, so happy to bet anything $2+. Keen.


We should be on at a nice price with the $2.30 available on Wednesday and the $2.35 (even $2.60) available yesterday.

Last Updated: 7:44am AEDT on Friday, 7th July 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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