BlackBook - Friday, 7 January 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 7 January 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


STAWELL - Race 1

OTHER

#2 HAPPY SOCKS bolted in Heat 12 on Dec 8. He’s a 6yo maiden with 16 career starts and only four placings, with those four placings coming first or second up… so he certainly goes better fresh. He’ll be a big price and maybe one to spec first up?


STAWELL - Race 7

OTHER

Very easy all the way win for #7 ADABEYAAT, defeating the talented Ho Ho Khan and bolting in Heat 12 on Dec 17 over the 1200m.


CRANBOURNE - Race 1

OTHER

He was green in his Dec 9 jump out, but the blinkers went on for #5 ESTRAPAZ in Heat 5 on Dec 22 and they certainly looked to switch him on. He was away cleanly to get straight to the front along the rail and led from start to finish, quite comfortably in the end as he gave a kick away around the bend under minimal jockey pressure. Did it well.

Have liked #7 MOLLYMOSA before each of her preps and this upcoming prep is no different. Last start she went to the lead at Moonee Valley but was ran down late to finish 3rd (at a big $31 SP), with some nice form coming from it - 2nd (RealGun), 4th (Mighty Feat), 6th (Diamonds’n’stones), 7th (Bottmingen) and 8th (Alfoil) have all won since. She made a nice return here winning Heat 8 on Jun 21 and will go very close to winning a maiden first up. Keen to follow her.

NOTE: was spelled after this jump out due to an injury, returning to finish 4th on Dec 20 in her only jump out prior to this return run.


#9 JUNKO was a big price on debut, finishing 2.2L off them in 4th and subsequently spelled. Thought her first jump out on Dec 13 was okay when 2nd, her jump out in Heat 9 on Dec 20 a lot better, winning in nice time for the morning with a little gap to 2nd. She’s owned by Mick Price but was a really cheap purchase, so it’ll interesting to see how she returns this preparation.


CRANBOURNE - Race 4

OTHER

Two jump out wins now for #8 WOLFLANDS, the latest over 1000m and coming in Heat 11 on Nov 29 as the 3yo gelding responded to some riding in the straight to kick away and win by a nice margin in the end with some okay horses back in the field including Za’ex and Miss Gobcain. He hasn’t been a standout, but certainly worthing noting his jump outs to keep him in mind first up.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Cranbourne, Race 1

No knock on JUNKO, as he’ll be our saver, but think MOLLYMOSA is a really good bet here at a big price. The latest run at Moonee Valley rated +0.1, which is the clear best last start and peak benchmark rating of this race but it was back in December 2020 with the lightly raced 5yo mare having some injury set backs to explain the long lay off.


JUNKO brings in the next best last start rating at +4.0 and looks one of the main chances. Drawn a touch awkward with barrier 7 of 7 while MOLLYMOSA has barrier 3. ESTRAPAZ can run well on debut but also draw’s a touch awkward with barrier 6 of 7 and prefer to side with he race experience as he was a bit green in his jump outs and needed the blinkers, so he might need the run here to work it out.


Looking to back MOLLYMOSA and save on JUNKO, they look the two main winning chances to us. Overall play is a medium confidence bet.


Few scratchings with the big track downgrades, so we've lost a bit of our price on JUNKO but have a nice post-deductions price for MOLLYMOSA. If you're yet to back, look to outlay 2 units overall and weight towards MOLLYMOSA still. A wet Cranbourne track will most likely be a leaders track, which will suit MOLLYMOSA.


Cranbourne, Race 4

WOLFLANDS has been entered in several races where he's always been smashed in early markets but keeps getting scratched. He opened $11 here and was smashed in early markets again, but this time he looks to have found his race. Home track debut, drawn beautifully with barrier 4 and Patty Moloney has been booked to ride at all the previous scratched races.


Not going to make him an official bet but wouldn't talk you out of putting the $50 on TAB Tote for the bonus back. He can win this.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 2.00 units.


Cranbourne, Race 1

MOLLYMOSA ~ 1.00 units WIN @ $12.00 (Sportsbet) or $11.00 (TopSport, TAB & others)

JUNKO ~ 1.00 units WIN @ $2.25 (TopSport) or $2.15 (TAB)


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +26.93 units at Recommend Price | +58.10 units at Betfair SP


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