BlackBook - Friday, 6 May 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 6 May 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


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CRANBOURNE - Race 2

#3 TREOTTO (8) - M Kent

The talented colt TREOTTO was back at the jump outs following a 13-week spell, winning Heat 11 on Mar 21 with absolute ease as he led from start to finish. We loved his jump outs last preparation, highlighting him after a trio of jump outs on Oct 18 (1st in black silks on outside), Nov 1 (2nd in black silks - winner is Masterful, ran 4th, 3rd, 3rd in MDN’s after) and Dec 20 (5th, black silks on the outside, very quiet). The son of Sooboog is a lovely moving 3yo colt that looks to have plenty of talent and we’re keen to follow him into a debut as a late 3yo.


Another super jump out by TREOTTO in Heat 2 on Apr 19, although he finished 2nd over the 990m here as he was no match for Riverplate late, a Busuttin runner who has finished 2.6L off a Group 3 and 2.4L off a Group 2 prior to running in the Caulfield Guineas. He showed tremendous gate speed again to lead and went to the line under a hold with ease where they clocked 58.20s, a very slick time. He beat home Quraysha in that first Mar 21 jump out with that runner coming out and winning impressively by 1.2L first up, so there is some nice form from the jump outs too. He’s going to be very hard to beat in a maiden on debut.


Starting to sound like a broken record now, but would be surprised if TREOTTO lost on debut. He was entered in at Sale last Wednesday but was a late scratching where he was fractious in the barriers and became cast, forced to head back to the jump outs again. His win in Heat 6 on May 2 a result of this as he just cruised and was clearly a class above. He led and couldn’t of been given an easier time. Very keen on him.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Cranbourne, Race 2 - TREOTTO

Very keen. He was a very short-price $1.50 at Sale before he was scratched and the horse that he beat in the Mar 21 Jump Out won by 2.2L, which just furthers his form as Mygirlgladys was 3rd with Quraysha 2nd and also winning by 1.2L first up. In his second jump out on Apr 19 he was ran over by Riverplate who ran 3rd first up but beat home Perceptive (3rd) who then ran 4th in a Listed race and the 4th horse in Pelosi won on debut by 1.5L. His latest jump out on Monday was just to tick a box for the stewards to get back to the races.


Ethan Brown takes the ride here and it's 1 of only 2 rides at Cranbourne, the night before he has a Group 1 ride on Snapdancer in South Australia. Have no doubt that this gelding is why he's sticking around at Cranbourne and we're sure he will make it worth it before heading off to Morphetville.


Glad NICE FOR WHAT is in the race to take some of the market % - won latest JO but it was in the slowest time of the morning and she's a 7x start maiden with 3x 2nd's - very happy to take her on. INDY ROSE WARRIOR came last in the Apr 19 jump out behind TREOTTO so was happy to take her on as well as the rest of the field who haven't shown nearly as much as he has shown. This is a very winnable race.


UPDATE (Wednesday): For those that were quick on TAB, Nice For What opened favourite (as we thought she might) and TREOTTO opened up $4.40 - hope some are on at that price, even the $3+ that was available shortly after but he was quickly backed into $2.60. Think we can afford to wait until Friday to make a final decision with the weather conditions (therefore any potential scratchings/deductions). He will be a minimum 3-unit play.


UPDATE (Friday): We're making him a 5-unit bet, which is a special - we're very confident he wins this and it wouldn't surprise to see him start odds on so we're going to play ½ on Fixed and ½ on the SP to hedge our bets a little, in terms of price. Looking for a Friday Fill Up!


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 5.00 units.


Cranbourne, Race 2

TREOTTO ~ 2.50 units WIN @ $2.50 (TAB)

TREOTTO ~ 2.50 units WIN @ Betfair SP (Betfair)


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +4.39 units at Recommend Price | +37.91 units at Betfair SP

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