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BlackBook - Friday, 6 January 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 6 January 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


STAWELL - Race 8

OTHER

#5 TRUE NOBILITY was super winning Heat 7 on Dec 22, leading and going to the line untested with the ears pricked. He looked like he could’ve bolted in if he was given a little more reign. Super return - he’ll likely have another jump out but ultimately end up in a BM58 first up.


CRANBOURNE - Race 4

#9 IVAN'S HERO (1) - C Waller

IVAN’S HERO is a must bet first up this prep, he looks to be flying ahead of his return. He ran 2nd on debut to Hennessy Lad who won a CL1 at Sandown the other week and is 2/2 in his career before running 4th to Aft Cabin. He’s been given more time and has had the big gear change of becoming a gelding, which could really be the making of him as a racehorse now. He cruised to the line in a Dec 9 jump out and did so again in Heat 6 on Dec 23. He was under a ridiculous hold throughout this heat, looking like he was jogging on the spot until he finally was given clear galloping room but was put under no pressure, cruising to the line but this heat was the quickest of the morning. He looks in super order plus he’s been gelded and got nice form from his debut prep, he’ll be hard to beat wherever he goes.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Stawell, Race 8

#5 TRUE NOBILITY (10) - P Chow

Low/Medium.

Looking at his form, his shit runs have all been over 1200m (7th, 6th, 9th, 8th) while his good runs have been over 1000m (4th, 4th) and 1100m (1st, 3rd).

He resumes here over the suitable 1100m and despite only having 1x JO, suspect he'll be right to go here as that is a usual lead up. The BM58 is more than suitable as well and think he can run well here first up.


Backing ½ now a the $6.50 and ½ at SP.

Canterbury, Race 1

#2 CITIZENSHIP (4) - C Maher & D Eustace

SCRATCHED DUE TO TRACK DOWNGRADE.

​Cranbourne, Race 4

#9 IVAN'S HERO (1) - C Waller

High.

Love that he's gone straight to 1400m first up but barrier 1 isn't a great draw, would've probably preferred him out a bit more. M Dee might need to weave some magic late as we're expecting him to be sitting on the back of the leaders and coming home late but in saying that, he looks a class above this lot.


Playing SP and looking for a better price late.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Cranbourne, Race 2

#10 SKEPTICISM (1) - T Busuttin & N Young

BlackBook jump out comments:

SKEPTICISM could be a nice 3yo filly for Gerry Harvey and Busuttin/Young, winning Heat 14 on Dec 28 over the 1000m in quite impressive fashion. She sat on speed but very wide throughout, doing her best work in the straight as she cruised to the line but was a class above this lot. A lovely bit of work from the Not A Single Doubt filly.


No bet recommended.

Canterbury, Race 3

#4 CAPITOL QUEEN (2) - C Maher & D Eustace

BlackBook trial comments:

CAPITOL QUEEN had Russian Conquest covered in a Jul 18 trial and we know she’s a talented filly. She then went to Warwick Farm on Aug 5 before a spell, returning in Trial 9 on Dec 7 where she was wide throughout, cruising to the line in 2nd place but never asked for an effort. Solid return, a filly worth following into another trial.


No bet recommended.

Last Updated: 7:23am (QLD) on Friday, 6th January 2023.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 706x runners | 217x winners (31%) & 226x placings (63%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.07 WIN $2.28 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1126x runners | 277x winners (25%) & 311x placings (52%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.11 WIN $2.99 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 45x runners | 27x wins (60%) & 12x placings (87%)

Medium Confidence: 94x runners | 39x wins (41%) & 28x placings (71%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 85x runners | 19x wins (22%) & 26x placings (53%)

Low Confidence: 18x runners | 4x wins (22%) & 5x placings (50%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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