BlackBook - Friday, 5 November 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 3 November 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


WARRNAMBOOL - Race 4

OTHER

#3 BLUE ARMY was pushed along to win Heat 3 on Sep 27, but the company he went to the line with and in front of was quality including the likes of Mystery Shot, River Twain and Ocean Beyond. The 3yo colt was well backed on debut but was no match for Stonefield, with that runner going on to win a BM58 a couple starts later. Only his first jump out back in a high quality field, worth following.


PAKENHAM - Race 1

#5 AQUAPISHE (4) - L Kennewell

Loved the work of AQUAPISHE in Heat 6 on Oct 26, returning as a gelding here following a close debut 3rd at The Valley as a 2yo. The 3yo was ridden with no urgency out of the gates, dropped back to last and went through the motions as he was a good 5-6L off the leaders. In the final stages of the jump out though, he just cruised up under his own steam to the leading pack out out and came over the top, in front past the line and clearly travelling the best of this field. He could’ve easily won this jump out if he was put under even the slightest bit of pressure. Super bit of work in his return.


OTHER

#4 OFFSHORE BANDIT bolted in Heat 5 on Sep 29 who was the standout performer, albeit with some race fitness from a first up run 3 weeks ago. He constantly performs at the jump outs and while the first up run was encouraging to finish 3rd, he really needs to put it together on race day - if he does, he’ll break his maiden. Following second up but we’re cautious.


PAKENHAM - Race 5

OTHER

#16 JUPITUS debuted back in July as a 2yo, finishing 8th to Crystal Vain and returned for his second preparation with a jump out to finish 4th in Heat 16 on Oct 22 behind Crystal Vain. The son of Sebring was a $180k purchase and it looks as though he’s returning as a gelding here as a 3yo, dropping back to last shortly after jumping and just cruising throughout but showing some nice closing speed, especially past the line as he cruised up alongside the leaders and did it all relatively easy. Only his first jump out back, but he looks to be going well.


PAKENHAM - Race 6

OTHER

Keep an eye on #14 OUR DESTRIER if he pops up in a BM58 first up. He was a very slick winner of Heat 4 on Oct 25 in really nice time, backing up a 2nd in a jump out on Oct 12 behind subsequent 3.2L MDN winner I Am News. He was gelded last preparation, winning his first two runs as a gelding before failing in his first attempt at 2000m and then failing in a BM64 at Sandown but potentially coming to the end of his preparation there. Really nice 1000m jump out here though and a BM58 is certainly a class of race he can go well in.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Warrnambool, Race 4 - BLUE ARMY

BLUE ARMY brings in the best last start benchmark rating with his debut 2nd to Stonefield. His first jump out caught our eye, but his latest two jump outs since then have been only fair and really dimmed our confidence on backing this colt.


We're not too keen to get involved at the sub-$2.20 available and happy to let him go around at that price. He can win and it certainly wouldn't shock to see him win, we're just not keen at the price.


Pakenham, Race 1 - AQUAPISHE (& OFFSHORE BANDIT)

Ratings wise, AQUAPISHE's debut is the second best last start benchmark rating and the second best peak benchmark rating coming into this. He comes here as a gelding now with only the one jump out, but it was a very impressive jump out that really caught our eye. He showed a stack of speed to lead on debut and was only just overran late, so resuming here with barrier 4 suits as he can go forward or sit a pair back. Looks very well placed to go well first up as a gelding.


The best rating is from GOJIRA who comes into this now third up and at peak fitness. Looks one of the main dangers along with OFFSHORE BANDIT who ran well first up but not sure that race was too flash. He has had the jump out in between, which was super, but it's been 2 months since that first up run and 1 month since the jump out so there has to be a query on fitness levels and whether there has been some issues?


Happy to be with AQUAPISHE, think he is very well placed and is going to be hard to beat. Not sold on OFFSHORE BANDIT and going to let him go around with no bets.


Pakenham, Race 5 - JUPITUS

Disappointed that SAINT LOFT was scratched - thought he was a good chance in this race. JUPITUS was scratched from Kyneton with the wide barrier and suspect he won't line up here either being the fourth emergency with barrier 12 of 16.


Ratings wise, SEONEE brings in the best last start and peak benchmark rating from her debut run behind Argentia up the straight at Flemington where we've seen Invincible Caviar, Sistine Explorer and For Real Life since win. She started a $3.50 favourite that day... P Payne doesn't usually stand out at the jump outs as his horses are always at the back, which is what SEONEE did but she just looks a really classy mover and her latest trial over 1000m when 4th was super where we've seen the 2nd horse (Kikuyu) since run 2nd in a MDN. Think she wins this.


HONGBAO trialled okay but the third horse from that trial (that looked to be going just as well) has since ran 8th in a MDN. REFLECTING IMAGE looks to be the main danger with all the other dangers have been scratched.


With SEONEE and we'll look to save to breakeven on JUPITUS.


Pakenham, Race 6 - OUR DESTRIER

He's been a different horse since he got gelded, winning his first two starts as a gelding before stepping up to a 2000m BM64 to finish 11th of 12 and then going back to a 1600m BM64 and finishing 10th of 10 at $91. We would've much preferred a BM58, but he resumes here in a 1200m BM64 with barrier 10 of 15 as the second emergency.


Ratings wise, he's a long way off this lot as well. His peak rating is +8.1, which is the lowest peak rating of the field ad almost 3L off the second lowest.


No bets for us - happy to let him go around. Maybe chuck him in your Quaddie (if you're playing) just in case.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 5.25 units.


Pakenham, Race 1

AQUAPISHE ~ 2.00 units WIN @ $1.95 (TopSport & Bet365 at 8:06am)


Pakenham, Race 5

SEONEE ~ 3.00 units WIN @ $2.05 (TopSport at 8:06am)

JUPITUS ~ 0.25 units WIN @ $12.00 (TAB at 8:06am)


Overall: - 2.52 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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