Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 5 May 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
KYNETON - Race 1
She beat nothing special in terms of quality of opposition, but Liam Howley’s un-named 3yo filly #1 RUSSIAN REVOLUTION x GIPSY COUNTESS was way too speedy in Heat 3 on Feb 6 where she led and then kicked away in the straight as she was put under pressure. Only her first jump out so keeping an eye on her and also treading carefully.
We mentioned Liam Howley’s un-named 3yo filly #1 RUSSIAN REVOLUTION x GIPSY COUNTESS following a very speedy Feb 6 jump out win and her work in Heat 5 on Mar 3 was no different. She went to the front in the early stages and bolted away, way too quick and speedy for both fields in both jump outs. She’s done it easily in both of these jump outs as well but also hasn’t beaten much in terms of quality of opposition, so have to tread carefully but not sure she can do much more ahead of her debut.
CRANBOURNE - Race 3
#10 REAL ALLIANCE started $101 SP on debut and she certainly ran better than her price suggested, coming from the back of the field to finish 6th while clocking the meetings second fastest L400m/L200m in a nice rating race. She’s been given time, returning in Heat 8 on Apr 11 for a very impressive first jump out, coming to the outside fence and hitting the line really nicely under very minimal pressure. Being by Real Impact out of a mare that got out over 2000m herself, she’ll likely be one to follow further into the prep but certainly one to follow into another jump out and first up as well.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Kyneton, Race 1
#1 BOLSHOI PRINCESS (12) - L Howley
Her latest JO at Bendigo was probably only fair but looked as though she was restrained and she prefers to be free flowing and running, which is what they did in her two Kyneton jump outs prior to that, leading and bolting in in both of them - think they take a similar approach here from the wide draw with Craig Newitt on board.
It's a low confidence speculation bet, but think she's worth having something on.
She's been well supported in early markets ($12 into $6) so unsure what her price does so worth playing ½ now and ½ on the SP to get the best of both worlds.
Cranbourne, Race 3
#10 REAL ALLIANCE (6) - L Oliver
She ran well first up on the back of only 1x JO (which was super) - she clocked top-10 closing sectionals for the meeting where she finished 5th and we’ve seen 3rd since win at Bairnsdale by 1.8L - she was squeezed late and probably should’ve ran top 3 instead of 5th, which would've read better on the form guide.
Like the step up to 1400m here second up and think she can run really well - the obvious query is the heavy track but think she's worth a bet at $3.50+.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Kyneton, Race 2
#9 EXILE (18) - J Cummings
BlackBook jump out comments:
EXILE technically finished last in her first jump out on Feb 24 but it was only a field of 4 and she was given a very easy time, just cruising and dropping back late. She was given more of a hit out in Heat 13 on Mar 24 where the leaders got going in the early stages and she was given a push to keep up, closing very nicely late once she got into her work to get through the middle and win over the concluding stages. She couldn’t get that maiden out of the way in her first prep but looks to be in good order so worth monitoring first up.
Last Updated: 7:48am AEDT on Friday, 5th May 2023.
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):