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BlackBook - Friday, 5 August 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 5 August 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


CLICK HERE TO SEE OUR BLACKBOOK SUMMARY


BALLARAT - Race 1

OTHER

#5 ENGLISH RIVIERA has a high cruising speed and that was certainly on show in her return jump out win in Heat 6 on Jun 29. The 2yo filly went straight to the front and led from start to finish under a strong hold. She’s obviously a talented filly, finishing 1.4L off the Blue Diamond in her last run but she is also still a maiden, so will be interesting to see where they go with her before ending up in town. Filly to follow.

 
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Ballarat, Race 1

#5 ENGLISH RIVIERA (2) - T & C McEvoy

High.

This just looks like a Jump Out for prize money. She's a Group class filly in a mid-week Ballarat Synthetic maiden with only 56kg in a small field with barrier 2, so she'll go straight to the front and win. Can't see her losing but she's not possibly a betting proposition at $1.15 - sit back, watch and enjoy her win.

Scone, Race 4

#3 ANGEL SHE AIN'T (10) - A Bennett

RACE ABANDONED.

BLACKBOOK WATCHLIST

The below aren't #BlackBook runners or recommended bets (unless stated), but are those we have notes on and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing (i.e. quaddie's etc).

Ballarat, Race 2

#3 KING TOMMY (6) - M Ellerton

He's a continual jump out performer, but just hasn't brought it on race day yet. Jump Outs on Jun 3, Jul 1 and Jul 8 prior to the first up run. Not sure we can trust him, but would like to see him allowed to jump and run here (not sit in behind with no room to move like he did first up).

Last Updated: 8:18am on Friday, 5th August 2022.

 

Results (Aug '20 to Today):

'Highlighted' Runners:

672x runners | 202x winners (30%) & 212x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.28 WIN $2.30 PLC


'Other' Runners:

928x runners | 207x winners (22%) & 256x placings (50%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.81 WIN $3.11 PLC

 
STAKING

How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.


Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).

If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, you will bet $10 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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