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BlackBook - Friday, 4 November 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 4 November 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


PAKENHAM - Race 3

#8 MORPHEUS BRAGI (7) - C Vidotto & C Beasy

Really loved the work of MORPHEUS BRAGI here in a heat that included horses a lot more experienced than he is, which isn’t hard considering he’s un-raced. He was solid in his return jump out Sep 21 when 2nd to Requited while defeating a few that have all run races. He again jumped out in a heat beyond his grade and was super, finishing 3rd in Heat 3 on Oct 5 but it was the way in which he finished 3rd and who he did it around that is worth noting. He was away slowly, settling at the rear of the field and a good 6L off the leaders in Streets Of Avalon and Mornington Glory but he more than made up that ground, showing a super turn of foot over the concluding stages as he went past Barb Raider (who was under more pressure) to get within 2L of those leaders in a super bit of work. Not only that, he was flying to and through the line and they clocked the fastest 900m time of the morning. This is his second prep but is yet to make a debut, winning a pair of jump outs on Apr 27 and May 11 prior to a spell and his return here. A 3yo son of Wrote, we are very keen to follow him into a debut.


PAKENHAM - Race 8

OTHER

That’s two lovely bits of work from #6 MAXIUM VELOCITY, a 3rd placing on Sep 26 behind Tick Tock Boom (since 2nd BM58) followed by his win in Heat 6 on Oct 10 that will have him ready to go once he gets back to the track. A BM58 would be the ideal scenario as he resumes from this 7-week let up having last raced in a 0-62 at the start of August.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Pakenham, Race 3

#8 MORPHEUS BRAGI (4) - C Vidotto & C Beasy

High.

The debut wasn't quite the big win that we expected and wanted, but he still ran well. In hindsight, barrier 1 was a big query to overcome and he just couldn't quite. He sticks at 1200m but he comes out of the chute, which will give him plenty of room to get going this time, especially with barrier 7.

The Unicorn was 2nd that day and has since bolted in a Mornington by 3.5L, while Highland Girl (4th) has since ran a good 2nd while gapping 3rd. Good form race.


Filthy on the scratchings as we were keen to be with him against the Moody favourite regardless. Anyway, we liked him way too much on debut to jump off and despite not winning, think he still ran well and very happy to be with him again here.


Playing late/SP as $1.50 this morning is ridiculous - hoping ~$2+.

Pakenham, Race 8

#6 MAXIMUM VELOCITY (1) - S Chan

Low/Medium.

Certainly would've preferred a BM58 but his latest jump out was super and with barrier 1 here, he can get a lovely run in transit and can run a cheeky E/W race with the claim.


Happy to be with him at a price, backing ½ this morning and ½ SP as he likely gets out a bit more late.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Pakenham, Race 1

#6 SILVER TYCOON (2) - N Dunn

​This 4yo gelding ran super on debut despite finishing 6th at a $91 SP. He jumped from barrier 13 of 13 that day, which forced him to drop back to a clear last, a good 20L off the leader, but his work late and over the concluding stages was absolutely super despite being held up several times. He finished 3.9L off the winner and would’ve got a lot closer if he had room. Decent form from the race too, with 5th since winning and 2nd/3rd since placing and 4th went down as a $1.80 favourite next start.


The step up to 1600m suits, barrier 7 will allow him to settle closer here and he gets the blinkers on for the first time. He can run a much improved race


We were expecting to see a bigger price and had him as one to back at some value, so we'll wait until the jump to play but scratchings have ruined his potential for a big price - backing for ½ the collect as he's not an actual BlackBook runner.

Last Updated: 8:18am on Friday, 4th November 2022.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 696x runners | 213x winners (31%) & 222x placings (63%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.15 WIN $2.29 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1048x runners | 252x winners (24%) & 285x placings (51%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.19 WIN $3.02 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 33x runners | 22x wins (67%) & 7x placings (88%)

Medium Confidence: 59x runners | 26x wins (44%) & 16x placings (71%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 52x runners | 9x wins (17%) & 16x placings (48%)

Low Confidence: 10x runners | 3x wins (30%) & 2x placings (50%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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