BlackBook - Friday, 4 March 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 4 March 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
ARARAT - Race 1
The 4yo gelding Stripped Back (who has 4x career starts for 2x wins and a placing) was ridden out and pushed but no match for #13 TESTIFIED who looked a class in Heat 4 on Feb 23. The un-raced 3yo filly followed Stripped Back throughout, sitting midfield with cover before peeling out late and coming over the top to win and put a gap on 3rd. This was a super first jump out and Tom Dabernig is flying at the moment (28% win % from his last 50 starts).
#14 THAT’S MOLLY might be able to run a cheeky race on debut after winning Heat 5 on Feb 15, which was her second jump out since switching over to Maddie Raymond and certainly her best. She clocked nice time for the morning as she went forward and was one of two breakaway leaders throughout. A 1000m country maiden on debut at a big price looks the go.
ARARAT - Race 2
On paper, #8 CHAMPINSKY certainly wasn’t disgraced on debut when 2nd to Bella Royale but a huge 3.75L gap to 3rd and the run rating +6.5. However, there has been no form come from this race with the 4yo-mare making switch over to Liam Howley. He looked good in his return jump out, leading (as he did on debut) from start to finish in Heat 3 on Feb 7 but did clock a slowish time for the day. He’s one for the watch list and would be well suited to a country maiden at a tight turning track where he can lead.
MOONEE VALLEY - Race 6
Nice bit of work by #4 CIRRINA in Heat 8 on Feb 14, extending away late when asked for an effort to win by several lengths. The 5yo mare looks to be travelling well and expect to see another jump out before resuming in a BM70 first up.
Ararat, Race 1 - TESTIFIED
Michael Dee is booked for only the two rides at Ararat, both for Tom Dabernig who is striking at 28% for his last 50 runners. She showed very good gate speed in her only jump out but was ridden with no urgency early to take a sit in behind the leaders, following Stripped Back throughout before coming over the top late. Not the biggest fan of only the one jump out but this looks to be a talented filly.
THAT'S MOLLY also beat Stripped Back in a jump out when leading. Her jump outs have been slick as well and she's probably worth a saver.
Keen on TESTIFIED, think she goes really well here with THAT'S MOLLY the main danger and STARZ BARWON probably the third pick. If she had of had the two jump outs, would've been very confident but with only the one jump out and at the price, she's a medium confidence bet.
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.
We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.
Total outlay is 1.50 units.
Ararat, Race 1
TESTIFIED ~ 1.50 units WIN @ Betfair SP
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): -6.94 units at Recommend Price | +29.38 units at Betfair SP
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