BlackBook - Friday, 4 February 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 4 February 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
WERRIBEE - Race 2
Watch on #2 DREAM INHERIT, who finished 3rd in Heat 6 on Jan 4 being her first jump out this preparation alongside better than maiden grade horses in True Impact and California Sunset. Want to see another bit of work but this was nice as she was hard held throughout the 1000m.
#4 ILOVEROSES has absolutely bolted in Heat 7 on Jan 4. The un-raced 3yo filly went straight to the front and was way too speedy, never giving anything else a chance. She had a pair of jump outs back in June/July but didn’t get to the races, this being her first jump out back and based on this, she’s one to definitely follow. She recorded nice time too.
#5 JUNKO was a big price on debut, finishing 2.2L off them in 4th and subsequently spelled. Thought her first jump out on Dec 13 was okay when 2nd, her jump out in Heat 9 on Dec 20 a lot better, winning in nice time for the morning with a little gap to 2nd. She’s owned by Mick Price but was a really cheap purchase, so it’ll interesting to see how she returns this preparation.
#10 TAYLA’S MOMENT was on a Blue Diamond path but didn’t quite get there. She was spelled after a very disappointing run in the Blue Diamond Prelude, returning for two runs as a late 2YO but they too were disappointing. We have a slight query on her just being a good early 2YO, but she’s been given more time has returned with good enough jump outs to suggest she can certainly win a maiden. She had a quiet Jan 14 jump outs that was followed by a nice win in Heat 4 on Jan 21, albeit in slow time for the day. She’s one to keep in mind when she returns to the races in a maiden.
#15 BEAUKATI has A LOT of speed, so it was no surprise to see her take out Heat 6 on Jan 4 over the 800m in the clear fastest time of the morning. Her worry is that she can’t seem to run out 1000m, but she’ll certainly look the winner at some stage. She’ll be best suited in a country maiden at a tight turning track with a low barrier.
No surprises to see #15 BEAUKATI bolt in another jump out in slick time, winning Heat 9 on Jan 17 with ease as she led from start to finish, she has a stack of speed. Look for a 1000m maiden first up, but the worry is going to be her last 100m or so.
MOONEE VALLEY - Race 4
Straight to the front for #8 DANCELITTLESISTER where she recorded a comfortable all the way win in Heat 9 on Jan 24 and held off a ridden out Pinstriped, who was a big 5.5L maiden winner himself. The 3yo filly was an easy 3L winner on debut when leading the whole way but failed second up when going into town. Immediately tipped out, she looks to have returned in nice order after a good break and can make a winning return to the races.
No doubt that #9 ROYAL DRESS is a talented filly, her easy Jan 5 win ahead of subsequent winners Stay In Touch and Ocean’s Jen was backed up by an easy win in Heat 12 on Jan 18 in the equal fastest 850m time of the morning. She’ll win some races.
Werribee, Race 2 - JUNKO
We were on JUNKO on debut for a small bet where he started $1.50 and finished 2nd, gapping 3rd by 3.8L with the run rating +3.9, which is the best last start rating coming into this. The track was a Heavy10 that day and was abandoned only three races later. Jamie Kah also reported that she failed to stretch out in the heavy going, so think we can forgive that run. She'll be improved now second up and will take a stack of improvement into this.
TAYLA'S MOMENT has always jumped out well and this preparation was no exception. Probably need to see her do it on race day after failing a bit last preparation.
Not sure what to make of BEAUKATI - she will fly out from barrier 3, lead and then it'll be a matter of whether or not they catch her. Would've preferred to see her in a 1000m race as the 1100m here might be a bit testing, so happy to be against her.
Have JUNKO on top and happy to back her again second up with the excuses and ratings from her first up run on the back of some super jump outs. She's the one to beat.
Moonee Valley, Race 4 - ROYAL DRESS (& DANCELITTLESISTER)
Very happy that MIDNIGHT CHARM was scratched - hopefully he now goes to a Maiden.
Big fan of ROYAL DRESS and think she's a very smart filly. She travelled wide without cover on debut over 1000m at Morphetville but was too strong and skipped away for an impressive - that run rated -4.2, which is the best last start rating and best peak rating of the race. She made Perseids look stupid in her latest jump out and she's drawn beautifully with barrier 2 to get a lovely run either outside the leader, or just in behind the leaders. Just needs to have clear air and she looks the one to beat for us.
Expecting DANCELITTLESISTER to lead from barrier 4 with Craig Newitt on board. She's only had the one jump out, which is a slight query, but it was super ahead of the smart Pinstriped with a big gap back to 3rd.
Very keen on ROYAL DRESS, so happy to be with her here. We'll be look to save on DANCELITTLESISTER as we're certainly scared of her and want to use one of the Bonus Back offers for her as we'll certainly be hoping ROYAL DRESS wins and she comes 2nd/3rd and we then get a bonus back for our troubles.
Unibet have a promotion for this offering, offering a Bonus Back if your runner finishes 2nd or 3rd - you can bet here (this promotion is available on all races at Moonee Valley...).
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.
We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.
Total outlay is 5.00 units.
Werribee, Race 2
JUNKO ~ 2.00 units WIN @ $3.00 (TopSport, TAB & others)
Moonee Valley, Race 4
ROYAL DRESS ~ 2.50 units WIN @ $2.40 (TopSport, TAB & others)
DANCELITTLESISTER ~ 0.50 units WIN @ $6.00 (UniBet for Bonus Back)
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +18.39 units at Recommend Price | +55.57 units at Betfair SP
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PURCHASE - JUSTIFY x NOW NOW FILLY
Some exciting news for us - we have purchase a % of this Justify filly from the Magic Millions 2022 sales. She was a $400k buy and will be trained by Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace while she is majority owned by Coolmore... so very exciting!
She is eligible for Coolmore's Ferrari bonus (read here) and is a half-sister to Group 2&3 winner and Group 1 runner-up in FIESTA, who also earnt over $1.5m in prize money. Here's hoping this filly is just as fast - she certainly has the looks!
We will be posting the trainer updates to our members as we receive them so that you get a taste of ownership without having to pay any of the purchase price or ongoing trainer fees - some extra excitement for our members for no cost. She'll head off to the breakers and hopefully she's gets to the race track as a 2YO! She is still at least 6 months away from even being eligible to race so stay tuned...