BlackBook - Friday, 31 December 2021
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 31 December 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
MOONEE VALLEY - Race 1
#1 LORD PARAMOUNT (1) - C Maher & D Eustace
A pair of official NSW trials for LORD PARAMOUNT on Heavy tracks prior to coming down to VIC for a nice win in Heat 8 on Dec 13, clocking the fastest 800m time of the morning in the process. The flashy grey is resuming gelded and travelled up beautifully behind the leaders before being asked for an effort in the straight where he really extended away to put a couple lengths on the rest of the field. He looks to have come back in nice order and with the three trials and jump outs under his belt now, he’ll be raring to go first up as a gelding. He’ll go close in a Victorian maiden.
#5 MESCHEVER (5) - M Ellerton
The un-raced 3yo filly MESCHEVER held her own in Heat 1 on Dec 10 against the older and more experienced horses including Yes Baby Yes, Brazen Bully and Vowmaster. She travelled well on speed throughout and went the line untested in a nice bit of work, especially for her first jump out this preparation. Follow her into another jump out.
Simon Zahra looks to have a nice filly on his hands. MESCHEVER has not looked out of place in either of her jump outs, finishing 3rd on Dec 10 just behind Yes Baby Yes and in front of Brazen Bully and Vowmaster prior to her slick win in Heat 2 on Dec 17, again alongside better than maiden grade horses in Logan Street Lion, Suricate and Excelida. She’s shown plenty of early speed in both of her jump outs, so we’d expect her to show that once she does get to the races which would make a low barrier draw more than idea. She’s a nice looking horse and looks like she might have some talent.
OTHER
#4 HEARDYOU improved nicely from her Dec 8 to her win in Heat 9 on Dec 15 where she went straight to the front and hit the line quite well. Noting that these jump outs were only 600m and 750m (today), but it was a nice bit of work and she can certainly give a sight (at potentially a big price) on debut where we’d expect her to lead and give something to chase down. A 1000m maiden on a tight turning track will suit best.
MOONEE VALLEY - Race 2
OTHER
#2 DAYTONA BAY won a jump out back on Jul 20 ahead of Island Edition (who won by 4.8L on debut) and the talented Lightsaber. Put away following that, the well bred gelding returned to win Heat 4 on Dec 7 quite well and although put under pressure, he looked to respond and travel well. He was a $360k out of a mare that was Group 1 placed in NZ over 1600m and looks like one we need to follow. Hoping to see another jump out prior to the debut.
MOONEE VALLEY - Race 7
OTHER
#16 MCKEEVER was a beaten $1.50 favourite first up when 2nd before finishing 4th in a CL1. Given a 4-week freshen up, the 4yo gelding returned for a slick jump out in Heat 8 on Dec 14 when 2nd but he was extremely hard held throughout. Being 63-rated, would expect to see him go to a BM64 or CL1 upon return and we’d expect him to go well.
OTHER RUNNRS AROUND AUS
Gosford, Race 1 - MR WALLACE
Dec 13 (Hawkesbury) - this is a very well bred colt, he was a $350k Magic Millions purchase being out of the superstar mare Streama who won the Group 1 Flight Stakes, ATC Oaks, George Main and Doomben Cup… - his first trial was on a Heavy9 track over 800m where he tired late, but his trial here on a Soft7 track was a lot more slick as he led along the rail and went to the line untouched - more a follow due to his breeding, but his trial here was nice as well without being super.
OUR THOUGHTS
Moonee Valley, Race 1
LORD PARAMOUNT has been scratched from several races this week, much easier than this this with this being the selected race with barrier 1. Ratings wise, his last start -2.0 is the clear best last start rating ahead of THE PUP (+6.5) and THE GLOBE (+7.1).
THE GLOBE's has some nice form around him from his previous run with 4th and 5th since winning along with his first Victorian run behind Along The River.
Of the debutants, HEARDYOU has jumped out well and will most likely take up a forward spot but not convinced her jump outs were of the quality of the rest of the field. MESCHEVER is the pick of the debutants for us and there was something about the way she moved against the more experienced horses that really caught the eye - she looks a really nice mover and it would not at all surprise to see her make a winning debut here. Looking back, her Jan 15 and Jan 22 jump outs as a 2yo were smart as well and she looks to have a stack of talent.
Wish MESCHEVER and LORD PARAMOUNT didn't meet in the same race, but we have a high opinion of MESCHEVER so will be playing her with a saver on LORD PARAMOUNT to breakeven. Playing for a high confidence bet overall.
OUR BETS
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
Total outlay is 3.00 units.
Moonee Valley, Race 1
MESCHEVER ~ 1.95 units WIN @ $4.60 (Bet365) or $4.40 (TAB, TopSport & most places)
LORD PARAMOUNT ~ 1.05 units WIN @ $2.90 (TopSport) or $2.80 (TAB & most places)
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +32.13 units at Recommend Price | +63.81 units at Betfair SP
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