Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 30 September 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.
BALLARAT - Race 1
Two jump out wins for #2 MCTAGGART now, taking out Heat 6 on Sep 9 in the third fastest time of the morning following his Aug 26 win, both of which were won in the same fashion where he led from start to finish. He was a beaten $1.90 SP favourite on debut when a 2yo taking on the older horses, so he certainly will have come back better this prep as a 3yo but was a bit weak past the line here and he seems to only lead without being put under any pressure. Tracking where he pops up first up, but will be one to see depending on what race he’s in (in terms of betting).
BALLARAT - Race 2
#6 STARZ BARWON has to have a maiden win in him. He failed first up on a Heavy track (ignore) but ran well second up despite being three-wide no cover the trip, finishing 3rd to Mr Freeze (since won CL1) with Liming (4th), Hayley (5th) and Zouhope (9th) since winning. He was then three wide no cover again third up when 4th to the smart Ice Pick Nick with Dustland Fairytale (3rd), That’s Milly (5th) and Soul Benefit (6th) all winning since. Given time, he returned for a nice Sep 7 jump out prior to his easy win in Heat 11 on Sep 21 and looks (again) in good order ahead of his return, he just needs some luck.
MOONEE VALLEY - Race 3
Thought #1 ANY ZOUWILLDO could’ve been a bet at a nice price after some solid but less noticeable jump outs and trials, but the 3yo colt was back at the jump outs for his third bit of work, a solid win in Heat 4 on Sep 19 over 990m on the synthetic track at Cranbourne. Unlike his Sep 5 trial, luck was taken out of the equation here as he jumped cleanly to lead throughout before then being put under pressure at the top of the straight and over the concluding stages as he responded to win reasonably comfortably in the end. Think he’s worth monitoring on debut.
#13 CADENABBIA ran well on debut when 2nd before heading to Caulfield where she was unlucky, travelling 4-wide throughout in a forgive run. She has been given a 10-week let up since then, returning in Heat 11 on Sep 20 where she sat off the speed before coming over the top late to win well and doing so against some runners who have broken their maiden. The Sepoy filly debuted off only 1x jump out, so she potentially goes straight to the races now but we’d like to hopefully see another jump out. Either way, she’s one to monitor.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Ballarat, Race 1
#2 MCTAGGART (2) - C Waller
He's been gelded since his debut and has had the two JO wins - from barrier 2, we expect John Allen to take this gelding straight to the front and give them something to chase, which is a big benefit at Ballarat on the Synthetic. He can lead from start to finish here - should be winning a race like this.
He's short this morning at ~$2.15, so we're going to wait and play closer to the jump. He did start $1.90 SP on debut though so it wouldn't surprise to see some support too (which would be welcomed).
Ballarat, Race 2
#6 STARZ BARWON (4) - D Brideoake
He hated the Heavy first up last prep and then was unlucky when wide in subsequent starts. He goes onto the synthetic here (so no wet tracks) and draws in with barrier 5 and Beau Mertens coming for the 1x ride. He should get every chance and based on his jump outs, he looks to be in good order. This is a very winnable race and he should be running very well here... backing him in, quite keen.
Moonee Valley, Race 3
Low confidence race - minimal outlay.
#1 ANY ZOUWILLDO (9) - K & K Keys
His jump outs have been good without being a standout. Thought he would go to an easier maiden but as a result, we're getting a nice price so happy to have a small E/W bet on him.
#13 CADENABBIA (5) - N Blackiston
Another we thought would go to an easier maiden. She has only had the 1x jump out but will have some residual fitness from her last prep. She can run a cheeky E/W race but looks more a place chance than a winning chance - not a stack of confidence - small E/W as well.
Last Updated: 8:10am on Friday, 30th September 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
687x runners | 208x winners (30%) & 218x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.23 WIN $2.30 PLC
1004x runners | 235x winners (23%) & 275x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.35 WIN $3.05 PLC
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):