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BlackBook - Friday, 30 June 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 30 June 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


GEELONG - Race 5

PRINCESS HALO was travelling super and going to win Heat 3 on Jun 21 with ease before she was pulled up and eased out of the jump out, officially finishing 5th of 7 runners. Her first two jump outs were quite similar, the first on May 26 ridden cold out the back and a Jun 9 jump out also ridden quiet but a bit closer. She was actually a previous feature of our reviews following a very very slick Dec 9 jump out and looks a nice mover that could be one that floats under the radar as she has been held back in recent jump outs. Big watch.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Geelong, Race 5


#6 PRINCESS HALO (8) - N Ryan

Medium.

He comes into barrier 8 post scratchings, which is a lovely draw and those scratchings certainly work in our favour as we had Craft Star, Kikusui & Dark Journey as well who we can now follow into another race and play.


Here though, there's a couple of 2YO's at the top of the market as we're about to get to the part of the year where the 2yo’s go well against the older horses but in a race where we have some older horses who have looked quite talented, we’re against the 2yo’s that haven’t shown as much at the JO’s so they have that age/experience disadvantage as well as genuinely not looking as good at the JO’s.


We’re against LISPECTOR - while her first jump out was superb, her latest left a bit to be desired as Embarque got away from her with ease, but we have seen that galloper run 2nd to Our Red Morning since and they did gap 3rd by 6L. She's the main danger though so may be worth a saver late if she gets out - monitor.


We loved the work of PRINCESS HALO at the jump outs and think she's certainly worth a bet here, we have her on top.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Geelong, Race 5

#4 LISPECTOR (7) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

BlackBook jump out comments:

Mick Price & Michael Kent are no strangers to nice imports from NZ and LISPECTOR looks to be another that could be in that mould. The 3yo daughter of Wrote was purchased following a 5L+ win on Jan 17 in NZ and she brought that sort of form into her first Aus jump out, winning Heat 11 on Jun 5 comfortably. She looks a nice filly but being only her first JO, she’s one to follow into another bit of work before debuting.

Last Updated: 7:46am AEDT on Friday, 30th June 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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