BlackBook - Friday, 30 December 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 30 December 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
WANGARATTA - Race 1
OTHER
Looks as though the blinkers went on for #3 GOLD REVOLVER in Heat 9 on Dec 6 and he’s absolutely bolted in and clocked the fastest time of the morning in the process. He went straight to the front and gave nothing else a chance, leading from start to finish where Daicos was 2nd but struggling to keep up, a massive gap back to 3rd. He’s been gelded and the blinkers go on fro his disappointing debut prep, so on the back of this jump out, we’ll see an improved performance first up.
#9 DETORON was solid in Heat 10 on Dec 9, her third second jump out this preparation. She had a quietly ridden Nov 25 jump out that saw her finish 4th when cruising to the line under a hold, which wasn’t the case in this latest jump out where she was pushed out over the concluding stages and asked to extend, of which she did as she was doing her best work through and past the line. A $180k daughter of Toronado, like that she responded to the riding and was able to extend so wanting to keep an eye on where she goes on debut.
WANGARATTA - Race 8
OTHER
Not going to mention #7 ZION’s first up run cause he was possibly the biggest moral beat we’ve ever seen. He had a tick over jump out, finishing 2nd in Heat 3 on Dec 23 and moving beautifully to and through the line. Keen to be with him in a BM64 second up, he’s in super order.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Runners | Confidence - Comments |
Wangaratta, Race 1 | We'll be backing both GOLD REVOLVER ($5+) and DETORON ($4+) for even returns. |
#3 GOLD REVOLVER (2) - G Waterhouse & A Bott | Medium. This should be pretty simple for a Craig Newitt ridden Waterhouse/Bott horse from barrier 2 with the blinkers on (while resuming gelded)... straight to the front and attempt to lead from start to finish. |
#9 DETORON (4) - N Ryan | Medium. While Gold Revolver will lead, Detoron will be just off the pace and looking to come over the top late. Her jump outs were actually quite smart and like the booking of Fred Kersley from a lovely draw. Should be able to stalk Gold Revolver and is the one that could pounce late. |
Wangaratta, Race 8 | ​ |
Medium. Still can't believe he lost first up but anyway... he looks well placed again second up and with barrier 2, hopefully Rhys McLeod can get him out late and if so, he'll be hard to beat. Happy to take the $3+. |
Final Update: 7:10am (QLD Time) on Friday, 30th December 2022.
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Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 706x runners | 217x winners (31%) & 226x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.07 WIN $2.28 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1116x runners | 274x winners (25%) & 305x placings (52%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.18 WIN $3.00 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 45x runners | 27x wins (60%) & 12x placings (87%)
Medium Confidence: 87x runners | 36x wins (41%) & 23x placings (68%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 82x runners | 19x wins (23%) & 24x placings (52%)
Low Confidence: 18x runners | 4x wins (22%) & 5x placings (50%)
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STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):
BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB