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BlackBook - Friday, 3 March 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 3 March 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


PAKENHAM - Race 1

OTHER

#1 SQUEAK has been super at the jump outs. He was forced to take a sit in his first bit of work on Feb 3, which he didn’t love but did finish off strongly alongside Starbury who’s one we have a big opinion of. This was similar again in Heat 10 on Feb 17, the 4yo gelding forced to drop back to the rear of the field and take a sit, overracing all through the early stages as a result. Once they got to the straight, he waited patiently for the gap and when it did appear late, he went bang and closed off superbly through and past the line. He’s a 3-start maiden with no career placings from his single preparation, but he looks to have come back improved this prep. Big watch first up.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Ararat, Race 3

#3 LONGWARRY (1) - A BlackBurn

Low/Medium.

His debut run was massive, he would've be 10L+ off them yet absolutely flew home down the outside of the track to only go down by 2.6L and the 2nd horse in Short And Stout is a $3.50 fav in R2 yet he's $14+... not to mention C Puls got a warning about riding her mount out, so he probably had more to give late and would've finished closer.


The step up from 1100m to 1300m suits, but the issue is obviously barrier 1 as if he steps a touch slow like his debut, he could get trapped a bit.


We're happy to have a bet at the $14+, think he's well over the odds and can win an open race here.

Pakenham, Race 1

#1 SQUEAK (4) - M Moroney

Low/Medium.

He has wanted to go a lot faster in both of his jump outs, overracing and doing a lot wrong as a result but still finishing off these jump outs and doing his best work past the line - good sign!


Obviously the first three in the market look nice horses - we have all three in our WathList below and we were on Explosive Rosie on debut - it's hard to split these and they are all 3yo's so we're looking at the 4yo gelding...


Hoping Fred Kersley allows him to get straight into his work from barrier 4 and if so, he'll be there late and giving a sight at a nice price at $10+.

We don't have to outlay much to get a return.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Ararat, Race 1

#1 GULF OF GUINEA (7) - B & JD Hayes

BlackBook jump out comments:

As an owner, it’s very good to see GULF OF GUINEA bolt in Heat 13 on Feb 7. On face value, he was ordinary last prep but he had some excuses. He was solid first up after almost a year off at Moe when 4L behind Our Redente (won 3 of next 4 races following this win) and Our Goddess (won for us a couple weeks ago) - he had an ordinary run in transit from barrier 11 and was hit in the head by the whip, so he’s ran well. Second up at Cranbourne Blake Shinn put in a ridiculous ride when he took him to the front to a massive lead and he just never recovered from that, pulled up horribly where he needed 4 weeks to recover and then he was rolled as a $2 SP favourite at Ballarat but he just never recovered from that second up gut buster, hence the spell to reset. He’s certainly got a maiden win in him, he just needs to take this track work form to the races. He’ll have another jump out and we’ll update everyone when he does get to the races.

Our boy GULF OF GUINEA was good again, winning Heat 23 on Feb 15 quite impressively… really hoping he shows this talent on raceday cause he looks to be flying ahead of his return!

Ararat, Race 1

#11 TAPTOE (9) - D Whitworth

BlackBook jump out comments:

TAPTOE was super here in Heat 7 on Feb 3 over the 1000m. The lightly raced 6yo mare showed some nice early speed to take up the lead before being restrained to come back to the field but it was her work in the straight that was the most impressive, kicking away around the bend from a ridden out Mevius (67-rater albeit a 2000m+ horse) to record a dominate victory and she even looked like she was still full of running late too, being pulled up. Doug Whitworth paid $30k for this Reward For Effort mare back in 2018 and he’s only seen her at the races once where she was poor, but that was a year ago and she looks to be in really good order here. Expect to see another jump out, but quietly impressed with this bit of work.

Ararat, Race 3

#12 ROLLING IN IT (8) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

BlackBook jump out comments:

ROLLING IN IT has been only fair in her two runs this prep but she was given a 5-week freshen up and a jump out in Heat 6 on Feb 23 with the blinkers going on and they looked to do the job, the 3yo filly leading throughout and bolting in. She looked to be travelling really nicely throughout before being put under pressure in the straight, responding under hands and heels in a slick bit of work. She clocked nice time for the morning with those blinkers on so expecting a much improved performance third up.

Pakenham, Race 1

#8 EXPLOSIVE ROSIE (5) - J Sadler

BlackBook jump out comments:

John Sadler has a nice filly on his hands in EXPLOSIVE ROSIE. This daughter of Smart Missile caught the eye from a pair of jump outs as a 2yo, finishing 2nd on Jun 22 behind Cotel (won on debut) before winning on Jul 5 and then being put away for a spell. She returned in Heat 7 on Jan 31 as a 3yo where she showed early speed to push forward to lead under a hold, extending away over the concluding stages despite the jockey sitting very quietly throughout.

Pakenham, Race 1

#9 FUN WITH FLAGS (1) - A & A Yargi

BlackBook jump out comments:

We mentioned FUN WITH FLAGS a few times following several jump outs as a 2yo but she didn’t make it to the races in either of those preps. She returned as a 3yo in an official trial on Feb 6 where she finished 3rd behind Sisterhood (since 2nd MDN) having settled at the rear of the field that saw her close nicely through traffic. There was no traffic in Heat 5 on Feb 22 as she went straight to the front to lead and fought off the late challenge of Muzukashii to win. The time was slow, but this was a nice 1000m bit of work and will top her off nicely for her debut if she does finally get to the track.

Last Updated: 8:15am AEDT on Friday, 3rd March 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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