Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 3 February 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
MOONEE VALLEY - Race 1
OTHER
#3 EL SOLEADO was good in amongst some good company, finishing 4th in Heat 1 on Jan 30 behind the likes of Smokin’ Romans and Nugget over the 1000m. This was the returning 3yo gelding’s second jump out following another 4th placing on Jan 16, which was also in amongst good company, both jump outs without the blinkers he wore on debut so keep a close eye on that gear change first up as well. He was disappointing on debut but that was up the straight at Flemington behind Doull and he did start a $9.50 SP third fav, so there was some stable and market expectation there and if he heads to a maiden first up now as a 3yo, he can go well.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Runners | Confidence - Comments |
Moonee Valley, Race 1 | |
#3 EL SOEADO (8) - J Laing | Low/Medium. Good to see the blinkers on here, which he hasn't worn in his JO's, so more improvement to come there and the booking of Mark Zahra is a positive. GRAYSONG had 2x JO's in blinkers that were good, but his first without them was only fair - they come off here, so a bit of a ? around him. THE SWOOPER looks one of the main hopes, while the others have been consistent without winning, so think we can risk them. He can run a much improved race first up and at $15+, happy to have a bet at some value. |
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Randwick, Race 3 #1 ASSOCIATE (3) - D Seib | BlackBook trial comments: ASSOCIATE was knocked off by Straight Acer when he was first up over 1400m, that runner has since ran a 0.73L 5th in a BM72, which is solid form. He was back at the trials in Trial 5 on Jan 24, dropping to the rear of the field in the early stages before he was taken to the middle of the track and closed nicely, finishing 2nd quite easily. He’s a good looker and a nice mover, keeping a close eye on him second up. No bet. |
Last Updated: 8:06am AEDT on Friday, 3rd February 2023.
STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):
