BlackBook - Friday, 3 December 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 3 December 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


MORNINGTON - Race 2

#4 HOKOLESQUA (6) - M, W & J Hawkes

HOKOLESQUA had a nice Apr 26 behind Lafargue but didn’t get to the races, being tipped out and returning in Heat 18 on Nov 15 (orange) as he went to the line with (and better than) the 64-rated Wegobam. The 3yo showed lovely gat speed to lead, travelling comfortably under a strong hold before lengthening nicely in the straight despite the jockey never moving. Only the first jump out back for this Star Turn gelding, but a really encouraging bit of work that we certainly want to follow.

HOKOLESQUA was mentioned after his Nov 15 jump out where he went to the line with (and better than) the 64-rated Wegobam. He did his credentials no harm when 2nd in Heat 16 on Nov 26 where he again showed nice gate speed to lead under a strong hold and then just cruising to the line, with the jockey not moving. We certainly can’t knock his jump outs and with him having the two nice jump outs, he’s a must follow into his debut.

#7 PRECIOUS SOCKS (10) - G Cross

PRECIOUS SOCKS is worth keeping an eye on first up, having ran 2nd first up last preparation before an unlucky second up run when wide throughout but still managing to finishing 2.2L off the winner. She won Heat 5 on Nov 9 as she prepares for her second career preparation. Not a stand out, but one to monitor.

Another very slick win for PRECIOUS SOCKS, taking out Heat 2 on Nov 23 over the 1000m where she clocked a nice 1:00.46s and backed up her previous Nov 9 win. In this heat, she showed good gate speed to lead and was just too speedy despite not being asked for an effort. She seemed to have a bit on this field including Kermy in 2nd. Glenn Cross doesn’t have a lot of horses in work, but this 4yo mare has some okay form on the board as a 3yo already and on the back of these jump outs, can give a sight first up this preparation.


OTHER

Huge win by #3 FOURMAK, the 3yo colt plenty of speed to lead along the rail and kick away in Heat 10 on Nov 17 as he was asked for an effort. The time was the second fastest of 8x 800m heats on the day and was above average, which is a positive sign to go along with the big margin, although he didn’t beat anything in terms of quality of opposition. One to keep in mind on debut.


MORNINGTON - Race 3

OTHER

The blinkers went on for #7 WINAM GULF between her Nov 15 jump out and her big win in Heat 15 on Nov 26, clearly sparking some improvement.


MOONEE VALLEY - Race 2

OTHER

Quite a nice run by #12 SABAID, winning Heat 12 on Nov 17 ahead of the 79-rated I Am Vinnie and doing so quite comfortably. He showed nice gate speed to lead and looked to relax nicely where he went to the line untouched and travelling with heaps left in the tank, especially for only his first jump out. He’s a very interesting 4yo gelding, having started $71 on debut when coming from the back to finish 5th and then being spelled. He ran okay without threatening and ran some nice closing splits. One to keep in mind.


MOONEE VALLEY - Race 4

OTHER

#4 HOUSAY sat out the back in Heat 4 on Nov 29, sitting very wide throughout before powering home down the middle of the track despite never being asked to fully extend. He’s 1 win from 1 start second up and after a nice first up run behind Excelman, he is one to follow second up in potentially a BM78.


MOONEE VALLEY - Race 5

OTHER

#10 MUTINOUS has now won two jump outs after making the switch to Enver Jusufovic, his win in Heat 3 on Nov 22 though was by a huge margin. Since he’s been gelded, he’s ran 2nd, 1st, 1st and 9th (when he had abrasions), so there is no doubt the gelding has really switched him on as his three runs as a colt were just okay. His two wins have come in SA though, so we’d like to see a BM58 first up back in VIC to consider him as a bet. Can’t do much more than win jump outs like this though.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

We won't be playing WINAM GULF (Mornington, Race 2), HOUSAY (Moonee Valley, Race 4) or MUTINOUS (Moonee Valley, Race 5).

- WINAM GULF hasn't jumped out well enough to play with any confidence.

- HOUSAY resumes in a BM78 and is certainly a good winning chance but we'd prefer to stick to the MDN's and BM58's - certainly one to watch for those playing though.

- MUTINOUS was scratched from a race at Wangaratta on Thursday and pops up in a much harder race here, being a BM70. The 955m suits but would've preferred him in an easier race.


Mornington, Race 2 - HOKOLESQUA + PRECIOUS SOCKS (+ FOURMAK)

TITLE SHOT brings in the clear best last start rating and best peak rating at +1.1 with BRILLIANT SAPPHIRE (+5.5) the only other runner who has a last start rating below +10.0. As a result, don't think there is much quality in the raced outside of TITLE SHOT, who draw's barrier 12 of 12 here. TITLE SHOT is the one to beat though, with Blistering since franking his form and winning a MDN by 3L and the 4th horse giving a good sight against our tip Swerving on Wednesday.


Struggle to catch Peter Moody and with FOURMAK drawing barrier 11 of 12 here, think he's one we can risk.

PRECIOUS SOCKS looks to have come back improved and she will need to, her two runs rating +10.1 and +14.3. HOKOLESQUA has jumped out really well ahead of his debut.


HOKOLESQUA is drawn the best with barrier 6 while all the other runners mentioned above have drawn 10+, which makes him the most attractive option from a betting perspective, especially at Mornington. Happy to risk against TITLE SHOT and back in our runner in HOKOLESQUA with a saver to breakeven on PRECIOUS SOCKS (just in case).


Mornington, Race 4 - INNER SPIRIT

Expecting Jamie Kah to ride a winner on her first ride back in Inner Spirit here. He resumes gelded, jump outs were good when untested and he's drawn for the perfect run from barrier 3.

His debut run rated +5.8, that's the second best last start rating and the fourth best peak rating coming into this. He was 3rd that day, with 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th and 6th all being next start winners. Ridiculous form.


Not many dangers either. I SHOT THE SHERIFF was 3rd first up where the 2nd horse was since $21 at Yarra Valley and could only manage 6th - also has barrier 14 of 16. GORGONADO has drawn barrier 15 of 16 - jump outs have been okay but probably needs the run and a bit further.


INNER SPIRIT should be winning this and happy to have a high confidence bet. Wouldn't surprise to see him start closer to $1.80 either.


Moonee Valley, Race 2 - SABAID

Not sure he gets a run here without a jockey booking as the first emergency with barrier 10 of 12. His debut run rated +8.5, which is the fifth best last start rating coming into this so he certainly isn't without a chance. He looks to have come back in good order and after being $71 on debut, he's one we can spec at big odds if he does run.


He makes the field after a scratching, which is very good for us who took the $51 or $61 (even $41) available Wednesday night or Thursday morning when posted. Ben Asgari has tipped him as an early look and as a result he's been smashed, into sub-$21 most places. Best to play at the SP if you didn't get the early price. Not a stack of confidence, but he can run well here as he resumes gelded for his second career preparation.


Deductions of 9c (TopSport) / 5c (TAB) /10c (Bet365).


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 4.50 units.


Mornington, Race 2

HOKOLESQUA ~ 1.50 units WIN @ $3.70 (TopSport at 8:15am)

PRECIOUS SOCKS ~ 0.25 units WIN @ $8.00 (Bet365 at 8:15am) or $7.00 (TAB at 8:15am)


Mornington, Race 4

INNER SPIRIT ~ 2.50 units WIN @ $2.10 (Bet365 at 8:15am)


Moonee Valley, Race 2

SABAID ~ 0.25 units WIN @ $61.00 (TopSport & TAB at 6:26pm, Wed)

*still $51 available on TAB & Bet365 as at 8:45am, Thursday*


Overall: +13.36 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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