BlackBook - Friday, 29 October 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 29 October 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


KILMORE - Race 1

#5 SYSTEMIC (1) - B & JD Hayes

SYSTEMIC did his best work past the line, leading throughout in Heat 8 on Oct 1 (white) to win by a couple lengths but really extending past the line and opening up a gap. She was extremely hard held in a Sep 17 jump out where he was overracing and very wide throughout, but never was asked for an effort and just cruised to the line. Again, she was in front past the line. He is very well bred, a half-brother to the Group 1 placed Mizzy and is a must follow on debut.


SYSTEMTIC featured after an Oct 1 jump out and was good again in Heat 11 on Oct 14 without standing out, finishing 2nd but given a push throughout the straight. He can run well on debut but not one we’ll be piling into, especially if he’s short.


CRANBOURNE - Race 1

#14 SKIPPING GIRL (7) - M Kent

We were following SKIPPING GIRL into her debut after some nice jump outs and she should’ve won. She had no luck, held up and only went down by 1.2L at a very nice $14 with the run rating +9.2 on PuntingForm. Back to the jump outs in between runs, she was way too classy for them in Heat 7 on Oct 25 getting up along the inside to win, albeit in slow time for the day. She’ll pop up in a maiden second up and would think she’d be hard to beat, hopefully opening up at a nice price. She’s better than maiden grade.


OTHER

#5 REBELLIOUS BELLE’s Oct 1 jump out on the synthetic was just fair, but her jump out back on the grass was super as she just kept extending away to win Heat 9 on Oct 15 by several lengths. She didn’t break any records time wise, but regardless, the un-raced 4yo mare moved well enough here to suggest she can go well once she finally does make her debut.

Three wins now for #10 JUICE BOX ahead of her debut, taking out Heat 13 on Oct 20 quite well after sitting in behind the speed. She’ll be one to spec at big odds, she’s travelling well enough to give a sight on debut.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Kilmore, Race 1 - SYSTEMIC

He can make a nice debut here. Barrier 1 with Luke Nolan on board at a mid-week country maiden looks an ideal kick off point for this 3yo. He's well bred, being a half-brother to the Group placed Mizzy so certainly hoping he has a little bit of his talent...


Few scratchings of runners in the market that we weren't particularly keen on anyway. Looks a race in three. GOLDEN RIDGE has had a nice pair of jump outs as well and can run well, but don't think she's jumped out any better than SYSTEMIC. She does bring in the best last start benchmark rating but it's at +10.1 with GORGEOUS PROPHET second at +11.3 and clearly above the rest. Either those two or SYSTEMIC win.


We're still happy to have a bet on SYSTEMIC from barrier 1. Expect her to go forward and we'd expect her to be in the finish. If you took the $8 on Thursday afternoon, we'd now have $5.84 on Bet365 or $5.36 if you used TAB. The $4.60 available this morning on TopSport will be the play.


Cranbourne, Race 1 - SKIPPING GIRL (+ REBELLIOUS BELLE & JUICE BOX)

Keen to be with SKIPPING GIRL here. She was badly held up on debut from barrier 1 but still finished within 1.2L of them back in 5th and manages to bring in the second best last start benchmark rating at +9.2... if she saw clear air then she wins and should not be a maiden or even in this race.


WIND DREAMER brings in the clear best last start benchmark rating at +5.3, but we know that SKIPPING GIRL had the potential to run a lot better and has the benefit of race fitness being second up here. Thought the jump outs were okay without being a standout. ANTIPODES comes from the SKIPPING GIRL race but don't think she turns the tables.


REBELLIOUS BELLE has jumped out well, likewise JUICE BOX but don't think they bet SKIPPING GIRL. At JUICE BOX price we can have a small play there to get our money back if she wins. Keen to be with SKIPPING GIRL regardless, think she will run very well here and hoping Jackie Horner can give her a gun ride this time in!


We'll monitor the price of REBELLIOUS BELLE for closer to the jump. If she gets out to $5-$6, then think she's worth a saver to breakeven.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 3.90 units.


Kilmore, Race 1:

SYSTEMIC ~ 0.75 units WIN @ $5.60 (Bet365/TAB) - if you haven't backed yet, look at the $4.60 (TopSport) currently available.


Cranbourne, Race 1:

SKIPPING GIRL ~ 3.00 units WIN @ $3.60 (TAB) - if you haven't backed yet, look at the $3.20 (TopSport) currently available.

JUICE BOX ~ 0.15 units WIN @ $20.00 (TopSport)


Overall: - 0.86 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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