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BlackBook - Friday, 29 July 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 29 July 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.



We don't have any official #BlackBook runners but do have some runners on our watch-list (see below).


We won't be backing FAST STAR, he's more an FYI due to his breeding. STREET CONQUEROR looks potentially worthy of a small bet. MR NEWS (Echuca, Race 5) is definitely worth a bet and our main runner for the day, while HYPOTHETICAL (Echuca, Race 9) looks a really good chance to make it two in a row and is the next best.


In summary: backing MR NEWS and HYPOTHETICAL, smaller potential bet on STREET CONQUEROR (unsure) and leaving FAST STAR.

 
BLACKBOOK SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

WATCHLIST

The below aren't #BlackBook runners but are those we have notes on and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing (i.e. quaddie's etc).

Echuca, Race 1

#6 STREET CONQUEROR (9) - G Begg

We had him as a BlackBook runner first up and it was a handy maiden - he was smashed in betting that day, opening $13 and jumping a $2.50 favourite. He will take plenty of improvement from that run and his jump outs prior to the debut were super. With Poiema scratched, he's now the one to beat and should be running well. Just not confident enough to be betting up at the price.

Echuca, Race 2

#9 FAST STAR (8) - L & T Corstens

This filly is the half-sister to star sprinter Santa Anna Lane and was a $500k purchase. She won a Jul 15 comfortably after a quiet Jul 1 jump out and can go alright here but she's more an FYI due to her breeding, than she is a bet based on her jump outs. RUNNING BY deserves to be favourite & a couple others go okay.

Echuca, Race 5

#5 MR NEWS (9) - N Ryan

This 3yo gelding is the best of our watchlist runners. He cruised to the line in 2nd place in a Jun 24 jump out before going to the line alongside Along The River on Jul 8, with that runner since running 5th in a BM70 at Sandown. He looks a good bet in this race, he really should've been a BlackBook runner - hopefully he can win for us still.

Echuca, Race 9

#12 HYPOTHETICAL (8) - A & S Freedman

We were very keen on debut where she finished 2nd and then she went to a handy maiden at Sandown and won impressively with a few subsequent winners. She's a progressive 3yo filly and she should be ticking off a BM64 like this. Happy to be with her here, she's a bet.

Last Updated: 8:23am on Friday, 29th July 2022.

 

Results (Aug '20 to Today):

'Highlighted' Runners:

670x runners | 202x winners (30%) & 211x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.27 WIN $2.30 PLC


'Other' Runners:

915x runners | 203x winners (22%) & 253x placings (50%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.87 WIN $3.12 PLC

 
STAKING

How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.


Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).

If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, you will bet $10 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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