BlackBook - Friday, 29 April 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 29 April 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
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GEELONG - Race 3
OTHER
#10 TAYLA’S MOMENT just can’t get that maiden win, finishing 3rd, 2nd and 2nd in her last three runs this prep which brings her now to being a 9-start maiden. She’s been given a 4-week freshen up and a jump out, winning Heat 6 on Apr 14 despite travelling on the outside rail under a strangle hold (albeit with race fitness). No blinkers on here, which she had on last start. Won’t be much confidence but her maiden win can’t be far away.
CRANBOURNE - Race 2
OTHER
We have a high opinion of the un-raced 3yo colt Treotto, but he was upstaged late by another 3yo colt in #6 RIVERPLATE who stormed home late from the back of the field to get up and win Heat 2 on Apr 19 over the 990m on the synthetic. The stable have clearly always had an opinion of this colt considering he had a Caulfield Guineas prep before going over to NZ for the 3YO Karaka Listed race, so he’ll likely head to some nice races again this prep but hopefully they kick him off in a maiden first up to get some confidence.
CRANBOURNE - Race 4
OTHER
She had a very disappointing debut prep where she only beat home 1x runner in her 2x starts, but #6 FRANKLY ROSIE resumed for a lovely jump out win over 1000m in Heat 4 on Mar 25 as she led from start to finish and was under a really strong hold throughout. It’s only her first jump out back, so hopefully we see another bit of work but it wouldn’t surprise us to see her go to the races now - one to watch as she’ll be worth a spec at a price first up.
*has since had a jump out on Apr 1 when 3rd*
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OUR THOUGHTS
Cranbourne, Race 2 - RIVERPLATE
He's a nice colt resuming here and he didn't have his blinkers on his latest jump out either, so there is plenty of improvement to come into his first up run following a Caulfield Guineas and NZ prep last time in. He's the class runner of the field here - his 4x runs last preparation when going towards the Caulfield Guineas netted the worst rating of +0.7, which would be the clear best last start rating of this race.
He was 2.6L off Lightsaber over 1400m before being 2.6L off Forgot You and Mr Mozart over 1600m, which has to be good enough to be hard to beat here. First up over 1200m at Sandown he was 2nd to Draft Day, defeating Growl and Prowling, which also is good enough form here.
GALAXY RULER ran +2.4 last start, the best last start rating of the race, after a +7.4 first up run and a jump out in between. Will be peaking now third up as he steps up to 1400m. GIRELLO ran okay on debut at Moonee Valley behind some nice horses and rated +2.0 - his second up run was disappointing but his latest run as he stepped up to 1300m was better as he ran 2nd to The Economist who ran 2nd at Flemington on Monday - he looks the main danger.
RIVERPLATE is the class runner of this race and clearly brings in the best form, especially over 1400m. If he's ready to go first up, then he should be hard to beat here and his jump outs suggest he is. The issue is the price, we're not keen to be diving into sub-$2. Annoying as we had ~$4 on Sunday before scratchings...
We'll monitor the price and weather throughout the day as it looks as though some rain is heading to Cranbourne this afternoon too.
UPDATE: Following the impressive win of Pelosi earlier today at Geelong, who was well beaten by RIVERPLATE (and Treotto) in that latest jump out, we're more keen on RIVERPLATE and going to have a play on SP for a medium confidence bet - we weren't keen on the sub-$2 but we're going to have to cop it. He should be going very well here - hasn't had a start on any soft tracks but does have 1x run on Heavy for 1x placing, being back on debut in NZ, so the rain shouldn't be a worry.
OUR BETS
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.
Total outlay is 2.50 units.
Cranbourne, Race 2
RIVERPLATE ~ 2.50 units WIN @ Betfair SP
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +8.89 units at Recommend Price | +42.41 units at Betfair SP
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BLACKBOOK NOTIFICATIONS
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