BlackBook - Friday, 28 October 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 28 October 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
PAKENHAM - Race 1
#3 CORNER OFF was 3-wide with no cover on debut at Cranbourne on the Heavy(9) track, tiring late to finish 3rd when starting a $4 SP favourite. That debut run was back in June as a 2yo, so the now-3yo filly has been given plenty of time and now looks ready to head back to the races on the back of an impressive jump out win in Heat 9 on Oct 11. The daughter of Toronado sat outside the leader here before kicking away in the straight as she was put under pressure, a very encouraging performance that will really bring her on. She will improve second up and we’re happy to follow.
PAKENHAM - Race 2
She hasn’t been super, but #4 KAMINSKY has quietly been good at the jump outs and now looks ready to debut. She was solid in the two shorter course 600m jump outs on Aug 31 and Sep 21 and then showed a lovely turn of foot in a 900m jump out on Oct 5 when closing well from the back to finish a close 4th. She hasn’t been away well in any of her jump outs, which was the case again in Heat 6 on Oct 19 where she was restrained throughout and just cruised to the line back in 3rd but clearly did her best work past the line. A 4yo More Than Ready mare with 4x jump outs under her belt now, she is worth monitoring on debut and could be one at a price.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Pakenham, Race 1
#3 CORNER OFF (3) - A Alexander
A typical Archie Alexander set of jump outs - the quiet first JO followed by a pushed out JO, and it was great to see this filly respond to the riding.
This is a genuine race of three (as the market shows) but she lacks the race fitness of Highland Girl (who gets winkers first time) and Lacemaker (who debuted on H10 so back to synthetic here = plenty of improvement).
Have to back in the BlackBook and back this filly though, her jump outs were slick and she looks like she's come on from her debut. Not a but outlay due to how even the race is and not a lot of value - playing late, looking for $3+ at least.
Pakenham, Race 2
#4 KAMINSKY (2) - C Brown
Good support in early markets ($9 into $5) is a good sign considering her trials weren't standouts. She's drawn beautifully with barrier 2 and looks well placed to be going well here.
The favourite in Plus Fours probably deserves to be favourite - he has been good in all runs this prep, unlucky not to have broken the maiden but at the same time, he has more than had his chance to do so...
Backing ½ now at $5+ and ½ on SP as these first starters often get out in price at the jump after having early support.
Last Updated: 8:14am on Friday, 28th October 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 695x runners | 212x winners (31%) & 222x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.16 WIN $2.29 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1041x runners | 248x winners (24%) & 284x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.21 WIN $3.03 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 31x runners | 21x wins (68%) & 6x placings (87%)
Medium Confidence: 58x runners | 25x wins (43%) & 16x placings (71%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 48x runners | 6x wins (13%) & 16x placings (46%)
Low Confidence: 9x runners | 3x wins (33%) & 2x placings (56%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):