BlackBook - Friday, 28 January 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 28 January 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


HAMILTON - Race 1

#5 STARZ BARWON (11) - D Brideoake

STARZ BARWON ran the meeting’s fastest L800/600/400m and second fastest L200m (winner ran the fastest) on debut with a big 2.5L gap to 3rd. The 3yo gelding hasn’t been seen since, returning in Heat 6 on Jan 5 where he was very quietly ridden and cruised to the line in 3rd place, looking to move really well in the process. Watching for another jump out as we think he has the talent to win a maiden.


Another encouraging bit of work from STARZ BARWON, closing well to win Heat 3 on Jan 19 much like how he did in his Jan 5 jump out despite doing a lot of work throughout, travelling a good 3-4 wide the trip without cover. He was given a couple of slight reminders from the jockey but he looked too classy for this lot and also looked to be a big horse with a nice stride. As mentioned after his first jump out, he ran the meeting’s fastest L800/600/400m and second fastest L200m (winner ran the fastest) on debut with a big 2.5L gap to 3rd with the winner of the race, being Lavish Girl, has since won a BM70 and been placed in a Listed race, both at Flemington. He looks a nice horse and can certainly go well first up in a maiden.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Hamilton, Race 1 - STARZ BARWON

We have a 'Runner Bonus Back' offer with UniBet for STARZ BARWON here, so we'll get our stake returned as a bonus bet if he finishes 2nd or 3rd (up to $50) - click here to bet with UniBet.


STARZ BARWON's debut run rated +2.0, which is the best last start rating and the second best peak rating of this race. Judging from his jump outs this time in, he's come back improved and looks to be better than maiden grade. He draw's barrier 10 of 10 here, so suspect he'll get back and look to run on late but as long as Harry Coffey has him in touch with the leaders, expecting him to be too good late. We're actually a fan of the wide barrier as he's a big striding horse and this will give him room to move.


ZOUHOPE is a late scratching due to the weather and track downgrades.


Backing STARZ BARWON, especially making use of our UniBet promotion as some insurance but think he's going to be hard to beat here. He's short enough now at the ~$2.30 mark so we'll play the SP.


Cranbourne Meeting

Whole meeting was abandoned due to the weather.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.


We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 2.00 units.


Hamilton, Race 1

STARZ BARWON ~ 2.00 units WIN @ Betfair SP


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +22.39 units at Recommend Price | +59.57 units at Betfair SP

When you sign up, select 'JumpOuts' for how you Heard About them and "JUMPOUTS" in the Promo Code.


PURCHASE - JUSTIFY x NOW NOW FILLY

Some exciting news for us - we have purchase a % of this Justify filly from the Magic Millions 2022 sales. She was a $400k buy and will be trained by Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace while she is majority owned by Coolmore... so very exciting!


She is eligible for Coolmore's Ferrari bonus (read here) and is a half-sister to Group 2&3 winner and Group 1 runner-up in FIESTA, who also earnt over $1.5m in prize money. Here's hoping this filly is just as fast - she certainly has the looks!


We will be posting the trainer updates to our members as we receive them so that you get a taste of ownership without having to pay any of the purchase price or ongoing trainer fees - some extra excitement for our members for no cost. She'll head off to the breakers and hopefully she's gets to the race track as a 2YO! She is still at least 6 months away from even being eligible to race so stay tuned...


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