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BlackBook - Friday, 28 April 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 28 April 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


GEELONG - Race 2

OTHER

Castillian was certainly an eye catcher in Heat 5 on Apr 5 as he closed really nicely from the back to finish 2nd but it was the winner that’s a horse to following, the 2-start maiden in #7 PRIVATE JUMBO who got a lovely run trailing Silver Up throughout before being put under pressure in the straight and closing nicely over the top to win. We were keen to keep an eye on him following his previous Mar 21 jump out alongside some nice horses so this trial over 990m is very encouraging and he should be quite forward now first up. He can go one better this preparation and finally break the maiden.


CRANBOURNE - Race 2

OTHER

The un-named 2yo filly for Thomas Nikolic has put together a pair of nice jump outs now, finishing 2nd on Dec 12 to a 3yo over 650m before winning Heat 6 on Dec 28 over 800m where she sat on speed and was good late when put under pressure, responded late to win quite well. She’s been jumping out under her breeding DEEP FIELD x MAKE MY OWN LUCK while she was a $80k Magic Millions purchase back in 2021 and looks to be a nice mover.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Geelong, Race 2

#7 PRIVATE JUMBO (5) - M Huglin

*no bet*

We were flat he resumed in a nice race at Sandown on Wednesday but he ran super, finishing 2nd again but it was a huge run having been 3/4 wide no cover the trip. he beat home plenty of horses who have won races in the past.


He drops back to maiden grade and with barrier 5, he should be awfully hard to beat here second up.


We obviously can't bet at the price though, way too short at ~$1.50 so just monitor to see if gets to $2+ but otherwise, let him go around without us.

Cranbourne, Race 2

#4 LUCKY DUCK (4) - T Nikolic

Low/Medium.

We identified this filly following a pair of jump outs in December last year but she didn't get to the track and was given more time. She just cruised and dropped out in her first JO back on Mar 28, but it was her more recent JO on Apr 11 that reads well now, finishing 2nd to Le Zebra who ran 3rd 1UP at Mornington on Saturday + she was doing it a lot easier.


Weren't convinced on the fav so a bit disappointed that he come out and ruined our price...

Anyway, this is a winnable race regardless, we like the debut at the home track for LUCKY DUCK, like the draw of barrier 4 and like the price at $6+, so we can bet.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Geelong, Race 2

#6 POCKET SAGE (8) - M Raymond

BlackBook jump out comments:

He was a clear last in his first jump out on Mar 22, but POCKET SAGE put in a much improved and impressive performance in Heat 3 on Apr 11. The 3yo son of Rich Enuff was clearly the best away and took up the lead in the early stages where he was under a hold and as a result came back to the field where Angelone snuck up the inside where he got 1-2L in front of him, but he really fought back when he was asked for an effort. They put a gap on 3rd here and did so in nice time for the morning, but it was the way he stuck the head out and fought back that impressed the most so happy to follow him into his debut.

Geelong, Race 2

#9 ALBANIAN STAR (10) - P Koumis

BlackBook jump out comments:

Having their first jump outs this prep, both WALK OF FAME (1st) and ALBANIAN STAR (2nd) both in some nice bits of work in Heat 4 on Mar 29 as they held off previous maiden winner The Genius. These two 3yo filly’s are worth keeping an eye on for another jump out ahead of their debut/return.

Last Updated: 7:43am AEDT on Friday, 28th April 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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