Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 27 January 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
KILMORE - Race 2
#5 IVAN'S HERO (4) - C Waller
IVAN’S HERO is a must bet first up this prep, he looks to be flying ahead of his return. He ran 2nd on debut to Hennessy Lad who won a CL1 at Sandown the other week and is 2/2 in his career before running 4th to Aft Cabin. He’s been given more time and has had the big gear change of becoming a gelding, which could really be the making of him as a racehorse now. He cruised to the line in a Dec 9 jump out and did so again in Heat 6 on Dec 23. He was under a ridiculous hold throughout this heat, looking like he was jogging on the spot until he finally was given clear galloping room but was put under no pressure, cruising to the line but this heat was the quickest of the morning. He looks in super order plus he’s been gelded and got nice form from his debut prep, he’ll be hard to beat wherever he goes.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Runners | Confidence - Comments |
Kilmore, Race 2 | |
#5 IVAN'S HERO (4) - C Waller | High. It was heartbreak first up at Cranbourne over 1400m where he was held up and a moral beat - he still clocked the meetings 5th fastest L200m and was coming late. Adding in the fact that the winner Suizero won again at Pakenham by 2.75L in a 0-64 and the 3rd placed horse in Brand New ran a 0.2L 2nd at Pakenham as well - he beat 4th by 5L that day. He's now second up, steps up slightly to 1450m and looks a moral here. The only danger looks to be the Waterhouse horse who will be leading, but happy to risk. The third fav is a 10-start maiden and fourth fav a 18-start maiden... he should not be losing this. Expecting him to start ~$1.50 as he is now, so hopefully a few of us are on at $1.80+ (even $2.10) from yesterday in the Telegram. |
Cranbourne, Race 2 | |
#1 ALL SASSED UP (8) - M Price & M Kent Jnr | *CRANBOURNE MEETING ABANDONED* |
Cranbourne, Race 3 | |
#12 SHECANMIXIT (8) - E Jusufovic | *CRANBOURNE MEETING ABANDONED* |
Cranbourne, Race 8 | |
#6 INVINCIBILUS (6) - B & JD Hayes | *CRANBOURNE MEETING ABANDONED* |
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Cranbourne, Race 3 #5 ANY ZOUWILLDO (10) - K & K Keys | *CRANBOURNE MEETING ABANDONED* |
Last Updated: 7:07pm AEDT on Friday, 27th January 2023.
STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):
