Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 26 August 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
PAKENHAM - Race 1
#10 ASTELENA (2) - B & JD Hayes
ASTELENA finished 2nd to subsequent maiden winner Islero in a synthetic Jul 1 jump out, this filly under less pressure than that gelding though in good signs. Given a few weeks, the 2yo filly came out and put in a super performance in Heat 9 on Jul 29 where she went forward out wide and was very quietly ridden until she really got into her work the last 100m or so and powered to and through the line. She was 2nd on debut in a 955m race at Moonee Valley, but looks to have really come on from that performance. Expecting her to go very well this prep.
Watch for Jamie Kah sticking with the Freedman import in #3 ENFANT ROUGE, she’s been on board for both bits of works and she looks a mare that moves well. She cruised to the line in an official trial on Aug 9 over 800m before bolting in Heat 5 on Aug 17 over the 900m on the synthetic track. She’s had the 4x career starts for 4x placings, all of them overseas and on the back of this work with Jamie Kah, she looks more than talented enough to be winning a maiden first up in Aus.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Pakenham, Race 1
Backing both ENFANT ROUGE and ASTELENA for even returns.
#3 ENFANT ROUGE (16) - A & S Freedman
Jamie Kah heads to Pakenham with only the 1x ride on this NZ mare having ridden her in all her JO's & Trials where she's looked super. No surprise to see her favourite, she looks hard to beat - looking to take ~$3.
#10 ASTELENA (2) - B & JD Hayes
Her jump outs were absolutely super and she's drawn beautifully to get a great run throughout. This looks a lovely kick off point for her besides the fact that she might run into a nice one in Enfant Rouge. Regardless, happy to be with her on the back of her JO's and $10+ is a lovely price to dive into.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Pakenham, Race 2
#2 BERARDINO (1)- T Busuttin & N Young
FYI - not a bet.
This colt has only had the 1x JO on Aug 15, finishing 5th of 7 over the 1000m but it was behind the likes of Illation & I'm Thunderstruck where he just cruised to the line, making ground on the Group 2 Sandown Guineas winner in Blue Army quite comfortably. Not a big fan of the 1x JO into debut, which is why we aren't backing him but he's a big watch here.
Gosford, Race 5
#1 MADAME CHARM (10) - N Doyle
Another that was mentioned on our 'The Early Bird' show in Episode 2 by Dean who loved her Aug 10 trial. Nathan Doyle goes very well first up. Expecting her to push forward and be hard to beat - happy to have a bet, but playing late as they'll most likely come for J-Mac. The $3.50+ looks about right, but going to look for ~$4 late...
Last Updated: 8:52am on Friday, 26th August 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
678x runners | 203x winners (30%) & 215x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.25 WIN $2.31 PLC
962x runners | 220x winners (23%) & 265x placings (50%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.60 WIN $3.08 PLC
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $10 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):