Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 25 November 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
CANTERBURY - Race 3
It looks like Mark Newnham has quite a smart filly on his hands in #6 BETSY’S FLAG. The 3yo daughter of Astern was heavily restrained in the early stages of Trial 13 on Nov 8 and forced to sit at the rear of the field while under a strong hold. It was her work over the concluding stages that really caught the eye, getting to the outside of the track and exploding to victory, recording a very dominant 1.44L victory with relative ease in the end. Looking back on her Oct 28 trial, she got a lovely run in behind the speed where she just cruised until 200m where she was pulled back to the inside and exploded to the front, doing her best work past the line. Quite keen to following this filly, she moves really well.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Canterbury, Race 3
#6 BETSY'S FLAG (3) - M Newnham
Our filly has had the 2x trials and is drawn quite well for her debut here.
The favourite, Jewellery, hasn't been seen since Jan earlier this year and has only had the 1x 740m trial in the lead up to this, which is a big query. Spiritchaser looks a big danger with that fitness advantage though, while Anavinci and Flying Shelly have both drawn horribly.
Think we can bet here, she's trialled up well enough to run a nice race and should be competitive here. We'll be betting ½ now at ~$3.70 and ½ at the SP.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Wodonga, Race 3
#12 WHITEHART (10) - P Maher
Watchlist jump out comments:
Quite a nice all the way win by the 2yo filly WHITEHART, taking out Heat 6 on May 31 ahead of the Lindsay Park pair of geldings who are both un-raced, but 4yo and 5yo. She looked to really get to the line with pace and was held back late on the line, doing it quite well. She’s the younger half-sister of Don Diego who was an impressive 3.5L debut winner in March who then ran 4th in the 3YO VOBIS Sires Guineas at Caulfield. Lovely first jump out for this filly.
No bet recommended - she was a previous BlackBook runner but was sent for a spell, having only the 1x jump out this prep ahead of her debut here.
Last Updated: 11:30am on Friday, 25th November 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 699x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 223x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.13 WIN $2.29 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1066x runners | 257x winners (24%) & 291x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.08 WIN $3.01 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 38x runners | 24x wins (63%) & 8x placings (84%)
Medium Confidence: 67x runners | 29x wins (43%) & 17x placings (69%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 59x runners | 10x wins (17%) & 20x placings (51%)
Low Confidence: 11x runners | 3x wins (27%) & 3x placings (55%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):