BlackBook - Friday, 24 February 2023
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 24 February 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
MOONEE VALLEY - Race 1
#4 STARBURY (4) - N Ryan
No secret that we’re a fan of STARBURY. We were keen to bet into him at Bendigo on Saturday, but he’s elected to have a second jump out instead (following his Feb 3 jump out) before finally making his debut, his sixth career jump out, which we don’t mind as we can now be confident he’ll be forward enough on debut and on the back of his work in Heat 4 on Feb 17, he should also be hard to beat. He travelled nicely in behind the speed alongside Bandersnatch throughout this heat, a galloper he hit the line alongside and actually looked like he was travelling better than as he made up good ground on the leaders in King Tommy (won a BM58 by 2.8L only 2 weeks ago) and Lumber Punk (ran 2nd in a BM70 only 3 weeks ago). If he had more room late, think he would’ve gone past these gallopers, as shown by his work through the line where he was making ground despite Tom Prebble taking it really easy on him and not to mention, they clocked the fastest time of the morning too. If he goes to a country maiden, he’ll win.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Moonee Valley, Race 1
#4 STARBURY (3) - N Ryan
We were obviously on Allocate last start and he couldn't get it done in a much weaker race than this, but the step up from 1000m to 1200m suits and barrier 2 will allow him to get a nice run in transit pushing forward.
We were also on Shecanmixit first up but can't see her winning this, she was ordinary first up. The Swooper resumed gelded and ran well first up - will be improved now second up.
The two main winning chances look to be The Swooper and Starbury. Don't think Lazy Susan has shown much at the jump outs while the rest of the field need to improve.
We love the look of STARBURY, think he's really talented and barrier 3 with Blake Shinn on board looks a perfect set up for him. He's the one to beat for us and happy to bet up!
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Moonee Valley, Race 5
#8 NAVAL ENVOY (5) - D Loos
BlackBook jump out comments:
NAVAL ENVOY has always been good at the jump outs and his win in Heat 11 on Feb 13 was no different, travelling really strongly on the speed before and cruising to the line late to record a soft win over the 1000m, clocking 58.90s in the process as the fastest time of the morning. Lovely return jump out.
Moonee Valley, Race 8
#9 DRAFT DAY (4) - L & T Corstens
BlackBook jump out comments:
They don’t often have 1000m jump outs at Flemington so the fact that DRAFT DAY has been able to go around in a 1000m jump out in Heat 4 on Feb 10 in addition to his super Jan 27, he’ll have a really good base to be going well first up now. In this heat, he travelled quietly out the back until he was put under some pressure to pick up and then being put away late, finishing alongside Elusive Express while behind Alligator Blood and Elliptical. He’ll hopefully go to a BM70 first up and then suspect they have some Autumn targets in mind where he looks in good order.
Last Updated: 8:14am AEDT on Friday, 24th February 2023.
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):