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BlackBook - Friday, 23 December 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 23 December 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


YARRA VALLEY - Race 1

#1 GYPSY TRICKS (8) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

A NZ trial winner back on Jul 14, GYPSY TRICKS is now a jump out winner in Aus as he took out Heat 10 on Nov 28 in his first bit of work. The 4yo Per Incanto gelding looked good here and did it quite easily throughout this heat - big watch.

No doubt that GYPSY TRICKS has a bit of talent. A NZ trial winner back on Jul 14, the 4yo gelding has now won a pair of jump outs in Aus beginning with a slick bit of work on Nov 28 that he’s backed up in Heat 6 on Dec 5, another smart win over 800m and doing so with ease. The Per Incanto gelding is owned by the Roll The Dice Syndicate amongst other owners and looks as though they have a nice one on their hands that will almost certainly be hard to beat on debut. He’s shown a bet friendly racing pattern in both his jump outs, doing so from the front and also doing so with ease without ever being put under much pressure to show whats under the bonnet. Regardless, keen to be with him on debut.


YARRA VALLEY - Race 8

OTHER

# SMOKEN HAZE is a 5yo gelding with 1x win and 1x placing from 22-starts but his work in Heat 6 on Dec 13 was super. He wasn’t wearing the blinkers here, travelling quietly out the back with not much room to go and this was the case for most of the straight, as he went to the line hard held in 5th place. Only his first jump out this prep so we’ll keep an eye on him for another but based on his form, he could be a spec bet at a nice price in a 0-58.


CRANBOURNE - Race 1

#2 HOOFS DON'T LIE (8) - B & JD Hayes

Very keen to follow HOOFS DON’T LIE first up. We mentioned him following his Nov 11 jump out on the synthetic track where he cruised to the line to finish 2nd alongside some handy enough gallopers, with One Reason a good distance back in 4th place who then won a maiden following this. His work in Heat 11 on Nov 25 was just as good, sitting off the very speedy Idris throughout the heat with that galloper ultimately winning in the clear fastest time of the morning. He held on well and put a big gap on 3rd here too, a very good jump out that would have seen him win any other on the day. He was 3rd on debut behind Thron Bone and Ghaanati before finishing 5th to Giga Kick, which is very handy form so add that to his slick jump outs and the ultimate gear change of being gelded over his break, he should be awfully hard to beat in any maiden first up.


CRANBOURNE - Race 4

OTHER

The blinkers went on for #14 SONGO SONGO and he won Heat 16 on Dec 19 very comfortably like a nice horse, albeit with some race fitness on his side. The 4yo gelding was 5th first up on a Heavy8 track behind Morpheus Bragi before going to Sandown where he was beaten 17.75L back in 9th on a Soft7 track, he was simply horrible. Given a 5-week freshen up with this gear change and this really slick 1000m jump out, he could be much improved third up.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Yarra Valley, Race 1


#1 GYPSY TRICKS (8) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

High.

Very keen on this gelding for his debut - Ben Melham goes to Yarra Valley for the one ride before heading to Cranbourne and suspect he's not making the trip for fun... expecting it to be a winning trip with him drawn beautifully at barrier 8. Very hard to beat!!!!


The worry is the price - regardless, we'll play him late and hope for $2, but realistically look for $1.80+.

Yarra Valley, Race 8

#13 SMOKEN HAZE (14) - M Trotter

Low.

This is a low confidence bet considering he's only had 1x JO and is drawn barrier 14 of 14, but that sole JO was slick and we've seen Daily Bugle since come from that JO and win.

He's $41+ and likely starts a lot longer so we'll back him and play late.

Cranbourne, Race 1

#2 HOOFS DON'T LIE (8) - B & JD Hayes

Medium.

Glad a couple got scratched but we still have three in this race including two below in the Watchlist, Global King and Tino's Daughter.


In saying that, Hoofs Don't Lie is the clear horse to beat 2UP here as he drops back from 1100m to 1000m. His first up run rated super and he'll be a lot fitter for that, the worry is the price as he's getting to sub-$2 again but backing him at $2+ as he will be very hard to beat.

Cranbourne, Race 4

#14 SONGO SONGO (4) - K & K Keys

Low/Medium.

His jump out was on Monday, so a quick turn around but as expected, the blinkers are on for the 'first time'. He steps up to 1600m and finds a better rated track this prep, so we may see a stack of improvement.


We were happy to have a bet at the $51+ that was available when we messaged in Telegram. If you missed that price, play late or at the SP as he likely drifts considering his horrible form.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Yarra Valley, Race 1

#9 FILLENTINA (5) - M Kent

BlackBook jump out comments:

FILLENTINA was an easy all the way winner of Heat 14 on Dec 12, but liked the way SKEPTICISM closed from further back to finish a close 2nd and she was probably the pick of the two 3yo filly’s, but both are worth keeping in mind as they likely have another jump out before debuting.


No bet recommended - not keen to back her on the back of only 1x 760m Synthetic JO, especially against Gypsy Tricks who will be awfully hard to beat.

Cranbourne, Race 1

#1 GLOBAL KING (5) - D Brideoake

BlackBook jump out comments:

GLOBAL KING got a lovely run along the rail in Heat 7 on Dec 7 and was too strong late, winning comfortably under minimal pressure but doing so in slowish time for the morning. While he cut the inside and got the rails run, PRIDING was on the outside fence and wide throughout but still closed well into 3rd place without ever being asked. Both of these 3yo’s are worth keeping an eye on.


No bet recommended.

Cranbourne, Race 1

#10 TINO'S DAUGHTER (4) - J Hunter

BlackBook jump out comments:

Lady Tino (mentioned above) was 3rd in a Nov 30 jump out while TINO’S DAUGHTER was 1st. This 3yo filly is also a daughter of Palentino and took out Heat 6 on Dec 14 after sitting outside the leader and showing a nice turn of foot over the concluding stages to win with a bit in hand, clocking the second fastest time of the morning. Another nice moving filly for Jerome Hunter.


No bet recommended.

Cranbourne, Race 3

#1 ANGEL OF BOOM (13) - D Dunn

BlackBook jump out comments:

Considering the quality of opposition and the fact that they clocked the fastest time of the morning, ANGEL OF BOOM was super when finishing a close 3rd in Heat 3 on Dec 7. The 4yo mare has been solid in her career despite not having that maiden win yet, placing in 5x of her 6x career starts. She’s had a change of stables to the brand new Dylan Dunn yard, putting in a very solid bit of work in her first jump out back this preparation as she just cruised to the line. We want to keep an eye on her into another jump out before debuting for the new yard.


No bet recommended - not keen to back here with him first up on the back of only 1x JO and from barrier 13 of 16.

Last Updated: 8:07am on Friday, 23rd December 2022.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 704x runners | 216x winners (31%) & 225x placings (63%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.09 WIN $2.28 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1108x runners | 271x winners (24%) & 303x placings (52%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.15 WIN $3.00 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 43x runners | 25x wins (58%) & 12x placings (86%)

Medium Confidence: 83x runners | 35x wins (42%) & 21x placings (67%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 79x runners | 18x wins (23%) & 24x placings (53%)

Low Confidence: 17x runners | 4x wins (24%) & 5x placings (53%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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