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BlackBook - Friday, 22 October 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 22 October 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


ECHUCA - Race 3

#13 MASTER FONTANA (1) - T Busuttin & N Young

The win of MASTER FONTANA in Heat 14 on Oct 11 when clocking a very slick 59.37s was an impressive bit of work as the 3yo looks to return to the races, potentially as a gelding this time in. He debuted back in July on a Soft7 track over 1330m and was a bit disappointing despite only finishing 4.15L off Sunfall who then went on to win a BM70 and finish 3rd (by 3.5L) to Forgot You at Moonee Valley. Following a quiet Sep 27 800m jump out, he travelled up beautifully along the inside here to extend away when given a slight rev up to put lengths on the field quite easily. He looks to have a nice action, but may be one to follow as he gets over further being by a mare that got out over 2000m herself. Super jump out regardless.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Echuca, Race 3 - MASTER FONTANA

Believe he resumes gelded here, as there was no gelding gear change on debut but there is also no gear change here. His debut run (when a 4.2L 8th) is actually the third best last start benchmark rating coming into this and looking further into it, PROUD MARY brings in the best rating but that was over 2000m at Flemington. Neither of the debutants have caught our eye at the jump outs, so we think if he's come back as improved as his jump out suggests, then he is a very good winning chance here.

Drawn barrier 1, should get a lovely run just in behind the speed and hopefully show something late.


Dangers wise, nothing has really stood out. MARQUISARD was okay when 3rd in a recent jump out with the 2nd horse since winning a maiden and the winner competing in a Group 3 (being Cardinal Gem). PROUD MARY didn't show a real lot and looks like she'll appreciate a lot further than the 1400m here. Would be expecting one of MASTER FONTANA or MARQUISARD to win.


OUR BETS

We're trialling a new 'units' system to have a new way of recording and showing our bets and results. As a rule of thumb, we'll follow the following staking:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 2.85 units.


Echuca, Race 3

MASTER FONTANA ~ 2.00 units @ $5.50 (TopSport)

MARQUISARD ~0.85 units @ $3.30 (TopSport) - saver (or 1.00 units @ $3.00 if missed early)


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