BlackBook - Friday, 22 April 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 22 April 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


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WERRIBEE - Race 7

OTHER

Coming off a 6-week freshen up with some residual fitness, #4 KASAMI went straight to the front and has absolutely bolted in Heat 9 on Apr 7 while clocking the fastest time of the morning in the process at 51.20s vs the day’s average of 53.55s and our overall average of 52.95s. She was poor last start but you won’t see too many better jump outs so we certainly need to keep an eye on where she pops up.


CRANBOURNE - Race 2

OTHER

#6 GREY NORTHERN sat 3-4L off the leaders throughout Heat 7 on Apr 1 and it was her work late, through and past the line that really caught the eye. The 3yo Shocking filly was closing super and was up with the leaders past the line, displaying a lovely turn of foot from minimal jockey pressure.


CRANBOURNE - Race 3

OTHER

#7 ISRAELITE BAY was superb as she came over the top of the field in Heat 10 on Mar 28 after sitting quietly wide and at the rear of the field. She powered down the middle of the track under a hold in a very impressive return jump out for CIaron Maher & Dave Eustace having previously been with the McEvoy’s last preparation where she had the 2x starts for 2x 2nd’s which included being 2nd to Devout Hero on debut and the now Group 1 placed Bon’s A Pearla second up, both of which have some nice form now. Keen to see what level she can get to with the new stable on the back of this lovely jump out.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Cranbourne, Race 3 - ISRAELITE BAY

She's been scratched from a race on a Heavy track at Kilmore on Thursday to run here (also accepted at Ballarat on Sunday). Mark Zahra is booked to ride and it's his only ride at this Cranbourne meeting - a big push.


Her first jump out (where he highlighted her) was absolutely super. Her second jump out on Apr 11 wasn't quite as spectacular to the eye when finishing 7th, but this heat was won by Jigsaw and Baekdu (since 2nd in MDN), who often speed off in jump outs and win by big margins while she was quietly ridden out the back of the field and cruised to the line which we still think was a nice bit of work.


She had the 2x career runs for the McEvoy yard before coming over to Maher & Eustace, finishing 2nd in both of those runs but the form reads really well. She finished 2nd to Devout Hero on debut before finishing 2nd to the Group 1 placed Bon's A Pearla second up, who she actually beat on debut (Bon's A Pearla was 3rd to Devout Hero).


The debut rated +9.8 while the second up run rated +1.8, both of which would have her hard to beat. Her last start rating of +1.8 is the second best last start rating and the second best peak rating of the race, while the debut +9.8 would be the third best rating of the race - so a repeat of either performances has her in well here. Don't think she's going to be running into any future Group 1 horses here at Cranbourne and she looks the one to beat despite drawing barrier 7 of 8.


The market has only GALATHILION as a danger, who has only had the 1x jump out and may need the run - was happy to risk. The one that might run well at a price is RECKLESS BAY who resumes gelded and jumped out behind ISRAELITE BAY in that first jump out - not sure he can beat the favourite but $26 seems over the odds. The scratching of the stablemate SUPER LEAGUE is a good sign too.


Think ISRAELITE BAY should just win this, but ~$1.30 is just ridiculous odds to take. With the race at 6:45pm tonight (and it being 8:30am), we can afford to wait and monitor the price throughout the day. Hopefully he gets out a little and he'll be worth a 2.5-3.0 unit bet.


UPDATE (5:40pm): going to play at the SP as she really should just win this. Nothing wrong with a Soft5 at Cranbourne and with barrier 6 in a small field, she can get a lovely position midfield over the 1200m and show her class - she should just be too good for this lot. Hopefully we can somehow sneak ~$1.80 late...


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

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Total outlay is 3.00 units.


Cranbourne, Race 3

ISRAELITE BAY ~ 3.00 units WIN @ Betfair SP (Betfair)


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +8.94 units at Recommend Price | +42.46 units at Betfair SP

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