BlackBook - Friday, 21 October 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 21 October 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.
CRANBOURNE - Race 4
A pair of jump out wins now for #11 EMERALD JACK and he looks in good order ahead of his return. He won an 800m jump out on Sep 26 at Sandown quite comfortably, backing that up with a smart win in Heat 4 on Oct 12. He was slowly away, but slowly edged his way forward before being asked for an effort at the top of the straight where he responded and bolted away. He was 5th on debut with some nice form coming from that race, the winner running 2nd at Flemington at his next start while 2nd and 3rd have since won MDN’s while 4th has been placed twice since. He was $31 that day so we might get another nice price first up where he’d be worth a spec.
CRANBOURNE - Race 5
#4 FLYING ACE was the pick of the bunch at Pakenham, taking out Heat 5 on Sep 27 over the 750m very comfortably in the second fastest time of the morning at 44.56s, above our average of 44.88s. In the purple silks here, the 3yo gelding jumped beautifully to lead but elected to stick to the middle of the track where he cruised to the line under a strong hold, covering a lot of ground but still doing it very easy. He’s by Flying Artie and half-brother to the 4yo gelding Ashgrove, a winner over 1600m as well as being Group 3 placed in the Queensland Guineas, so a bit of pedigree behind him and this was a lovely first jump out this preparation, his third prep without debuting.
Three jump outs now for #5 KING NEPTUNE, all of which have been nice bits of work. The son of Ocean Park won a Sep 7 jump out at Moe over 675m prior to finishing 3rd on Sep 20 to Native Tongue (since 1st MDN) and Queen Of Fire (since 3rd MDN). His most impressive bit of work came in Heat 4 on Oct 4 over the 1000m as he was slow out of the gates, a clear last in the early stages, before whipping around the field to lead them. The most pleasing part was that he didn’t use all his petrol tickets in those early stages, putting a big gap on them in the straight despite never being asked for an effort while those behind him were pushed out. A $170k MM Gold Coast Yearling Sale purchase, he just needs to bring his jump out form to raceday to be very competitive.
Two jump out wins for #6 MCTAGGART now, taking out Heat 6 on Sep 9 in the third fastest time of the morning following his Aug 26 win, both of which were won in the same fashion where he led from start to finish. He was a beaten $1.90 SP favourite on debut when a 2yo taking on the older horses, so he certainly will have come back better this prep as a 3yo but was a bit weak past the line here and he seems to only lead without being put under any pressure. Tracking where he pops up first up, but will be one to see depending on what race he’s in (in terms of betting).
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Cranbourne, Race 4
#11 EMERALD JACK (9) - D & C Feek
He jumped out well prior to his debut where he ran 5th at a big price, but there has been nice enough form come from that race (as mentioned). Without diving in, we're happy to be with this gelding here first up. He's sure to be improved now into his second campaign (with the tongue tie also going on) and his jump outs certainly suggest that, they were very slick. He'll run well here, he's a very good E/W chance.
Can play ½ now at $5+ and ½ at SP, as he may drift.
Cranbourne, Race 5
Have KING NEPTUNE on top from MCTAGGART, with FLYING ACE a place chance. Strongly against PENMAN (very happy to risk) and against EDWIN, while SCREAMING DIVA looks the main danger.
It's a hard race to get involved in, but could entertain backing both MCTAGGART and KING NEPTUNE at $4 a piece (and potentially saving on FLYING ACE late if he gets out in price, which we think he will).
#4 FLYING ACE (7) - P Moody
His jump outs were nice but he strikes a very even race here and Brian Higgins is only going at 2% for his L50 rides... he looks a place chance but looking elsewhere.
#5 KING NEPTUNE (8) - P Stokes
He looks the top winning chance in an even field. He was slowly away in his latest JO but with barrier 8 here, it won't be the end of the world as he just needs that clear air late to show his turn of foot.
#6 MCTAGGART (3) - C Waller
He's been slow away in both his career starts and from barrier 3 here at Cranbourne, he simply cannot afford to be slow away again, which he is likely to be...
If he can get away cleanly, he will be up there from barrier 3 and be hard to chase down - he's just hard to trust with that start but is one of the main winning chances.
Moonee Valley, Race 7
#9 SEPTEMBER RUN (13) - C Waller
Last Updated: 8:00am on Friday, 21st October 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 694x runners | 211x winners (30%) & 222x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.17 WIN $2.29 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1031x runners | 244x winners (24%) & 282x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.26 WIN $3.04 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 29x runners | 19x wins (66%) & 6x placings (86%)
Medium Confidence: 54x runners | 23x wins (43%) & 15x placings (70%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 44x runners | 6x wins (14%) & 15x placings (48%)
Low Confidence: 8x runners | 2x wins (25%) & 2x placings (50%)
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):