Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 21 January 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
FLEMINGTON - Race 1
#8 MADAME DU GAST (12) - T Rogers
Impressive first jump out for the 3yo filly MADAME DU GAST, closing well late to win Heat 5 on Dec 20. The Trevor Rogers horses can jump out well and not bring it to race day, so we’ll follow this filly into another jump out first.
MADAME DU GAST was accepted for a race at Sandown on Wednesday but was scratched, electing to jump out instead and putting together an impressive bit of work to win Heat 4 on Jan 4 by a couple of lengths. We mentioned this 3yo filly after a nice first jump out back on Dec 20, and this is the bit of work we wanted (and needed) to see to convince us that she does have some talent. If she goes to a country maiden on debut, she’s a big watch.
OTHER
The half-brother of Elite Street, #2 ELITE ICON, was a previous feature of our review back as a late 2yo on Apr 27 and May 13. He didn’t make it to the races though, given more time before returning to win two jump outs now. He led from start to finish to win a Dec 23 jump out in his return, prior to winning Heat 6 on Jan 5 in the fastest 800m time of the morning where he was pushed out late. He hasn’t been a standout, but there his jump outs are certainly good enough to go well on debut.
FLEMINGTON - Race 4
OTHER
#7 ALFOIL bolted in Heat 12 on Dec 31, the blinkers going for this jump out where he went straight to the front and it was over very quickly.
#9 AQUA LADY was disappointing first up but she did knuckle at the start a little that forced her to go back. Back to the jump outs for the 4yo mare, she won Heat 8 on Jan 14 comfortably as she led from start to finish while clocking a slick time, the third fastest time of the morning. She really hit the line hard and was extending past the line in an impressive bit work, albeit with a bit of race fitness. One to watch second up.
OUR THOUGHTS
Flemington, Race 1 - MADAME DU GAST
ELITE ICON has jumped out well but didn't think he was anything super and is quite sure here. He can go well but not keen to dive into the price. SMOKIN' HOLLY looks the other key chance and will be peaking now third up with some good form references having gapped 3rd in both runs to start this preparation. They look the two main dangers.
SEYDOUX will be a good form reference for our runner tomorrow in Signal after jumping out together in both jump outs on Dec 30 and Jan 12. Hopefully she runs well without winning...
We're happy to play MADAME DU GAST after some really nice jump outs. If she can bring that form to the races, she can run well here and be in the finish. Look to play the Bonus Backs for 2nd & 3rd, such as TAB.
Flemington, Race 4 - AQUA LADY
RED HAWK is the rightful short priced favourite here and expect him to be very hard to beat - we were on him on debut (if anyone can remember that far back) and he bolted in to stamp himself as one of the key spring hopefuls, but he never got back to the races.
In saying that, the price of AQUA LADY was too good to pass up in the early markets - we should (hopefully) be on at a very nice E/W price depending on where you got on, either $81/$14 on Bet365 or $61/$11 on TAB. She's now into ~$34 or so, which is still a nice price - if you didn't get the early price, look to play the SP for the same unit outlay. Not a stack of confidence, but we want to be on.
OUR BETS
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.
We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.
Total outlay is 1.30 units.
Flemington, Race 1
MADAME DU GAST ~ 1.00 units WIN @ $6.00 (TAB)
Flemington, Race 4
AQUA LADY ~ 0.15 units WIN @ $81.00 (Bet365) + 0.15 units PLC @ $14.00 (Bet365)
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +21.19 units at Recommend Price | +54.37 units at Betfair SP
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PURCHASE - JUSTIFY x NOW NOW FILLY
Some exciting news for us - we have purchase a % of this Justify filly from the Magic Millions 2022 sales. She was a $400k buy and will be trained by Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace while she is majority owned by Coolmore... so very exciting!
She is eligible for Coolmore's Ferrari bonus (read here) and is a half-sister to Group 2&3 winner and Group 1 runner-up in FIESTA, who also earnt over $1.5m in prize money. Here's hoping this filly is just as fast - she certainly has the looks!
We will be posting the trainer updates to our members as we receive them so that you get a taste of ownership without having to pay any of the purchase price or ongoing trainer fees - some extra excitement for our members for no cost. She'll head off to the breakers and hopefully she's gets to the race track as a 2YO! She is still at least 6 months away from even being eligible to race so stay tuned...