Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 21 April 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
WODONGA - Race 4
OTHER
We were obviously on #8 STARBURY on debut where he was well backed as a $2.90 SP favourite but was quite disappointing but he did run a bit of a race loading and as a result the stewards have sent him back to the jump outs. He was a class above in Heat 5 on Mar 31, cruising along up the inside to win under a hold and clocked the second fastest time of the morning. We’ll have to watch him when he resumes as we were way too keen on debut to jump off after only one run, especially if he goes to a country maiden.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Runners | Confidence - Comments |
Wodonga, Race 4 | ​ |
#8 STARBURY (3) - N Ryan | High. We all know how keen we were on this guy on debut but he was disappointing - $2.90 SP fav at The Valley and he just did way too much wrong, including being extremely difficult to load. He's been given more time where he was back to the JO's and cruising to the line, now back at the races from barrier 3 in a country maiden with Rhys McLeod on board, who strikes at 17.8% from 185x rides for N Ryan. Not a lot of form has come from that race but he did run the meetings third fastest L200m and think we have to be with him here as we still have an opinion of him, especially in a country maiden of this calibre - Futurisitic resumes gelded who was solid at the JO's, but wasn't nothing special - he's the only real danger. Happy to be with him and betting here - thought the ~$2.50 this morning was a nice price, expect him to start favourite. |
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Cranbourne, Race 8 #6 DANCELITTLESISTER (10) - T Busuttin & N Young | BlackBook jump out comments: DANCELITTLESISTER held off a race fit Set The Sails in Heat 15 on Apr 3, a solid second jump out over the 1000m that will top her off nicely for her resumption. She’s very speedy and leads, so it’s no surprise to see her win both of her jump outs and she’ll attempt to do the same first up so look for her over 1000m with a low barrier in a 0-64 or BM58. |
Last Updated: 7:33am AEDT on Friday, 20th April 2023.
STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):
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