Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 20 May 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
GEELONG - Race 7
It was hard to ignore the win of #5 AZOUSTIC in Heat 8 on Apr 13 over the 1000m, going straight to the front and bolting in by a big margin in the fastest 1000m time of the morning. He’s a 6yo gelding with 27x starts for the 4x wins and 5x placings, so certainly have to tread carefully but he can’t do much more than win a jump out like this ahead of his return to the races.
CRANBOURNE - Race 1
Foxicon beat #4 SMOKIN’ HOLLY first up last preparation at Bairnsdale where they gapped 3rd by 6L. #4 SMOKIN’ HOLLY then went on to be 2nd to No Baby No (gapping 3rd by 3.25L) and then 4th at Flemington where Elite Icon (2nd) and Silly Salmon (3rd) both won their next starts and she had another good 1.7L gap to 5th. She got the better of Foxicon in her return jump out, taking out Heat 2 on Apr 27 over the 1000m in impressive fashion, showing her speed again. She’ll be hard to beat first up in a 1000m country maiden.
#8 BAY THIRTEEN was given a spell following 3x jump outs, the latest being a jump out win on Jan 27 after winning an official trial on Jan 11 where she ran past In The Navy, a smart winner at Gawler on debut. The daughter of Deep Field returned in style, leading from start to finish in Heat 6 on May 4 but did only clock 50.07s, which was the slowest of the 750m heats. She will have another jump out, but a promising return from a promising 2yo filly.
Another win for #8 BAY THIRTEEN who can’t do much more ahead of her debut, where looks to be coming soon. She won last weeks May 4 jump out very easily when leading from start to finish, but was forced to take a sit in Heat 7 on May 11 where she was reluctant to do so early but once she did settle, she travelled well and then was asked to extend late over the concluding stages where she showed a turn of foot, which is an encouraging variation in his run style. The time was below average again, which is the only knock on her but still think this Deep Field filly can feature on debut.
CRANBOURNE - Race 4
It was only a field of 3x runners so there would’ve been no pressure, but #1 ASTERN VILLA recorded a dominant victory in Heat 10 on May 11 and he did clock a slick 49.27s, above the days average of 49.65s. We originally had him down as this being his first jump out, but he actually jumped out on May 4 as well where he was 3rd, beaten a long way but he was very quietly ridden. He’s had 3x starts for 0x placings but he resumes gelded here and looks to have come back improved.
Confidence - Comments
Geelong, Race 7
#5 AZOUSTIC (13) - B Cross
Low - latest jump out was poor, won't be backing.
Cranbourne, Race 1
#4 SMOKIN' HOLLY (7) - D Short
High - see below - thinking ½ at Fixed at $4+ and ½ SP.
#8 BAY THIRTEEN (5) - M Laurie
Low/Medium - see below.
Cranbourne, Race 4
#1 ASTERN VILLA (3) - S Nichols
Cranbourne, Race 1
This is an annoying one for BAY THIRTEEN but looks a good set up for SMOKIN' HOLLY at the same time. Of the 4x runners that are sub-$26 in the market, SMOKIN' HOLLY is the only non-2YO and once the 2kg claim comes off, she will have 1.5kg on Valenconi and Waterworld and giving only 0.5k6 to BAY THIRTEEN. As said a couple of times recently about the 2YO's, the middle of May is a bit early for them to take on the older horses and it'll be more towards June/July that we see them bet them regularly - for now though, can't recommend BAY THIRTEEN over SMOKIN' HOLLY.
Think SMOKIN' HOLLY is going to be hard to beat here and happy to play her. She has some really nice form and we know she will go forward and can absorb the speed - she has some nice form on the board too and that race experience will be invaluable here. She's also got the best ratings.
Not keen to take ~$2.20 for BAY THIRTEEN here - if this was a 2YO race without SMOKIN' HOLLY, she'd be hard to beat but unfortunately think she meets a 3yo filly that will just have a bit more than her on debut.
Last Updated: 8:29am on Friday, 20th May 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
662x runners | 198x winners (30%) & 209x placings (61%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.32 WIN $2.31 PLC
785x runners | 175x winners (22%) & 213x placings (49%)
Ave Betfair SP | $13.23 WIN $3.12 PLC
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Confidence levels will be as follows:
Low = not keen to bet.
Low/Medium = can win but not confident - small bet (if any at all).
Medium = one of the main winning chances - can bet.
High = very good winning chance - keen to have a bet.
Special = very keen, should be winning.
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