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BlackBook - Friday, 20 January 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 20 January 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


CANBERRA - Race 4

OTHER

#5 DANCING ALONE showed a super turn of foot late to win Trial 16 on Jan 3, clocking slick time in the process (fourth fastest of the morning). The 3yo I Am Invincible filly was away well but ridden with no urgency as she took up a spot midfield just off the leaders but wide where she then came to the outside of the track late and was given a squeeze over the final 200m and went bang to win with a bit in hand. She had a Dec 19 trial at Hawkesbury where she was out the back and didn’t have much room, ducking and weaving to find a way through in the straight but did get out very late to close well into 3rd place as well, so love to see her close well again and win this time. She was a $1.4M buy from the 2021 Inglis Yearling sales, so there will be no shortage of expectations on her and she looks quite talented. Big watch on this filly.


FLEMINGTON - Race 1

OTHER

Enver looks to train and own a nice move Nostradamus gelding on his hands in #3 THEORUM. Her work in Heat 9 on Dec 28 was his third jump out this prep where he was away midfield but slowly made his way forward and cruised to the line under his own steam in a nice bit of work, but he likely needs another jump out considering his previous jump outs were a win on Oct 17 and a 2nd placing on Oct 31, so a bit of a gap in between. He’s also had another two preps with two jump outs in each of these preps, so it’s taking him some time to get to the races but we know Enver is patient and his patience generally pays off so lets keep a close eye on this 4yo gelding.

We mentioned #3 THEORUM after finishing 2nd in a Dec 28 jump out and he went one better in Heat 7 on Jan 9, winning ahead of a few that move well enough. Enver has been very patient with this 4yo gelded son of Nostradamus, this being his fourth set of two jump outs so he’s now had the 8x jump outs ahead of his debut, four of them since October this prep. He’ll be certainly well educated for his debut and should be competitive.


Solid win by #6 GRAYSONG, taking out Heat 14 on Dec 22 over the 1000m as he stuck to the rail and put up a good margin on the field when put under a fair bit of pressure, he responded. He’s extremely well bred, by I Am Invincible out of Rewaaya, a Group 1 winner of the Rupert Clarke Stakes as well as being Group 1 placed in the Australian Stakes.

The well bred I Am Invincible gelding, #6 GRAYSONG was back at it again, taking out Heat 16 on Jan 4 by a huge margin as he led alongside another runner who he then left in his wake as he was pushed out in the straight. As we mentioned after his Dec 22 win, he’s very well bred being out of the Group 1 winner Rewaaya and on the back of these three jump outs, he’ll be forward enough on debut and can go well.


#12 MUISCA has now put together two nice jump outs, winning a Dec 13 jump out before running on really well from last to finish 2nd in Heat 3 on Dec 27 behind Dio, who’s certainly a lot more experienced than her. The 3yo filly looks to have come back in good order following her one-run debut prep that saw her finish 4th as a $3.20 SP second favourite, albeit on a Heavy9 track where she led so she may be looking for those dry tracks. We want to be following her into her first up run this prep.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Canberra, Race 4

#5 DANCING ALONE (2) - B Heys

High.

Scratched from Wyong on Wednesday and from R2 at this same meeting, she’s been scratched searching for the right race and the $1.4M filly looks very well placed here on debut. She likely gets a lovely trail on the leaders here from barrier 2 and will simply be a matter of if she gets room in the straight - if she does, then based on her turn of foot from her jump outs, she wins this.


Issue is the price at ~$1.60, which is a no bet. We'll monitor and see if she gets out late.


Sent as a late play via Telegram at the Betfair SP/Tote ($1.99/$2).

Flemington, Race 1

Backing THEORUM and MUSICA to collect 4%/4u + saving on GRAYSONG to breakeven.

#3 THEORUM (3) - E Jusufovic

Medium.

He jumped out alongside Tick Tock Lady (since 1st at Sandown) and then Our Goddess, which is really good jump out form. He was scratched from the race against Silkstar on Saturday to run here and is a 4yo taking on a few 3yo’s.

He looks one of the main winning chances and is a nice price to find out.

#6 GRAYSONG (9) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

Medium.

Once the blinkers went on this gelding following his first jump out, he’s been way too good in his two more recent jump outs, bolting in both.

He’s the deserved favourite but he's been well found at the same time.

#12 MUISCA (4) - J Brdigman

Medium.

She started $3.20 on debut at Moe and likely didn’t handle the Heavy track, so considering she was immediately spelled then we can forgive that run. Her jump outs have been good, especially the first ahead of Merry Mac Boy who then ran 2nd in a BM70. She gets a 3kg claim here to bring her down to only 53kg and considering her price of $15+, she looks over the odds and worth a bet.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Flemington, Race 1

#10 MESCHEVER (8) - M Ellerton

BlackBook jump out comments:

MESCHEVER has always shown talent but just has struggled to bring it on race day, finishing 2nd or 4th in all four career runs. She’s had a change of stables from Zahra to Ellerton, returning on Dec 9 for a quiet hit out before being given more of a test in Heat 6 on Dec 23 where she was wide and put under pressure in the straight, responding to come over the top and win in the fastest time of the morning. If she can finally bring this jump out form to race day, she’ll go well, but that’s the knock. Have to follow her first up.

Flemington, Race 2

#1 INDEPENDENT (13) - L Sullivan

BlackBook jump out comments:

INDEPENDENT goes well. He was 4th on debut before winning a maiden and then running twice at Sandown where he finished 2nd in a BM70 to Fire (at $41) and then 2nd in a CL1 to Niccolite (at $15), which is very handy debut prep form. Given more time, the 4yo gelding returned for a very quiet Dec 13 trial before his work in Heat 18 on Jan 11 where he stalked the leader throughout before then just cruising over the top to win under no pressure at all. He goes alright and because he’s with Linc Sullivan and not one of the big stables, he’s always been a big price so we want to keep a very close eye on him first up into a CL1 or BM64.

Canterbury, Race 1

#3 CITIZENSHIP (3) - C Maher & D Eustace

BlackBook trial comments:

CITIZENSHIP looks as though he’s finally gearing up to make his debut, having his second jump out of this preparation having only had the one in his previous two preps. He was a nice winner of a Dec 5 jump out, backing that up with a big win in Heat 14 on Dec 19 where he’s been way too speedy in both of them, leading them up and in the more recent jump out, also opening up a big margin late when put under a little bit of pressure. A $900k purchase for Coolmore, he can’t do much more ahead of his debut and on the back of these jump outs, expecting him to be hard to beat on debut.

Canterbury, Race 1

#5 EMANCIPIST (2) - G Ryan & S Alexiou

BlackBook trial comments:

Both of EMANCIPIST’s trials have seen him settle last and run on, making up good ground on both occasions to finish midfield. On Dec 29 he dropped back to a clear last where he was hard held and forced to stay put until the straight when he finally got extra reign and clear galloping room, closing off really well and doing his best work past the line as he was even with the leaders/winners. His work in Trial 11 on Jan 12 was much of the same, restrained to settle a clear last again, some 10L off the leaders. His closing speed was super, finishing only 1.7L off the winner and bolting to and through the line. He likely gets back and runs on, so his racing pattern won’t be friendly but these were super trials and he’s worth following first up.

Last Updated: 8:00am AEDT on Friday, 20th January 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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