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BlackBook - Friday, 2 December 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 2 December 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


MOONEE VALLEY - Race 1

OTHER

We were a big fan of #5 RACKERMANN post his 1000m trial win on Nov 7, but his work in Heat 9 on Nov 18 was a bit different and quite interesting. He was clearly last out of the gates and beaten for speed early while the leader kicked away and really got them rolling along when running the second fastest heat of the morning. This 3yo gelding was clearly out of his comfort zone and not suited to a fast run 800m jump out, off the bit for most of the early stages and struggling to keep up, but once he finally and caught up with them, he was actually really good past the line and even caught up with the leader/winner. He’s by Impending who won both of his Group 1’s over 1350m while his mum was a Group 3 winner over 1400m/1600m, so he looks as though he’ll be more suited to 1400m+. Either way, he can go well in a 1200m maiden first up due to his class and then look for him stepping up as he gets deeper into his preparation.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Moonee Valley, Race 1


#5 RACKERMANN (6) - B & JD Hayes

Medium.

His jump outs were super but at The Valley, we're worried about where he gets to in the run considering this is 1200m and he clearly needs further so likely gets back and looks to run on late, similar to his latest JO.


Would be very surprised if Borneo, Kupido, Rippleview Lad, Sheza Snake or Jenni Swenesee won + would be just a little surprised if Magnupur won.

That leaves two horses. FLYING TEMPTRESS probably should've won on debut when held up - will take plenty of improvement from that and is the deserved favourite.

Loved THORNYCROFT's debut at Geelong but surprised he's not stepping up in distance. Barrier 1 might be a sticky draw considering he gets back but D Oliver jumps on board.


Expecting RACKERMANN to run well here but he might be a run and 200m short of showing his best, especially at this track, so it's a bit of a risk. Also a big fan of THORNYCROFT's debut and want to be with him 2UP.


Going to take on the favourite and back RACKERMANN (~$5) and THORNYCROFT (~$4.60) to beat her.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Mornington, Race 1

#11 RIPPLING BELLE (10) - C Alderson

RIPPLING BELLE was horrible on debut back in September but was quite good in a Nov 21 ahead of Shakattak, who probably should’ve won on debut at Wangaratta. It was a Heavy8 track on debut and gets to a dry track here while dropping back from 1125m to 1000m, which looks to suit but she’s drawn horribly, especially at Mornington. If she had of drawn a gate, would've had a bet but not for us at ~$5.


No bet recommended.

Randwick, Race 5

#7 MICRO (7) - J Cummings

BlackBook trial comments:

MICRO was super in Trial 6 on Nov 8. He was slow-ish away before travelling in behind the leader but having no where to go in the straight until the final 150m or so where he then burst through to get to the front with relative ease. He’s only got 1x victory from 15x starts but he’s Group 2 placed and clearly a talented 4yo gelding.


No bet recommended.

Last Updated: 8:06am on Friday, 2nd December 2022.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 699x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 223x placings (63%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.13 WIN $2.29 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1076x runners | 260x winners (24%) & 295x placings (52%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.01 WIN $3.00 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 38x runners | 24x wins (63%) & 8x placings (84%)

Medium Confidence: 71x runners | 30x wins (42%) & 18x placings (68%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 64x runners | 11x wins (17%) & 23x placings (53%)

Low Confidence: 12x runners | 4x wins (33%) & 3x placings (58%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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