BlackBook - Friday, 19 November 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 19 November 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


TERANG - Race 8

OTHER

#4 AMINATU bolted in Heat 5 on Nov 8 in the clear fastest 800m time of the morning (by almost 0.5s) as she resumes from an 11-week let up.


Would love to see #9 GLENFERRIE GIRL in a BM58 over 1000m first up, wining Heat 5 on Nov 1 in nice time being her first jump out back this preparation. She was competitive in BM64’s and even BM70’s last preparation so a BM58 first up would be the perfect scenario and we’d be keen to follow her into one.


MOONEE VALLEY - Race 5

OTHER

#10 KEV’S GIRL has bolted in Heat 7 on Nov 1, the quickest 800m time of the morning where he just went straight to the front and gave nothing else a chance. He’s got a friendly racing pattern where he’ll almost certainly lead or be on pace at worst so we know he’ll have every chance and should he pop up in a BM64 first up, he’s worth following.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Terang, Race 8 - AMINATU & GLENFERRIE GIRL

GLENFERRIE GIRL can run well here first up - she ran +4.7, +2.4 and +2.5 last preparation all in BM64's (no rating for her Bordertown run). She pops up here in a BM58 with her last run in a BM58 being a 2.8L win. She brings in the second best last start benchmark rating and if she runs to any of her runs last preparation, she will be hard to beat here - her jump out suggests she can.


AMINATU tends to always jump out well, this jump out being no exception as she resumes and has the form and ratings to be competitive here as well. She gets down to 59kg after the claim.


Happy to leave this one and have no bets.


Moonee Valley, Race 5 - KEV'S GIRL

Scratched from a race last week due to the weather, popping up here with barrier 8. He brings in the second best last start benchmark rating at -3.9 behind LUNAR HERO with the best at -5.3. There looks to be some speed but expect him to be in that speed, either leading or just behind the leaders.


He can run well but a no bet race for us - more of an FYI if playing (Quaddie's etc.)


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

No bets. Total outlay is 0.00 units.


Overall: +7.98 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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