BlackBook - Friday, 19 May 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 19 May 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.

GEELONG - Race 2

#4 SIERRA DE GREDOS (5) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

A third jump out now for SIERRA DE GREDOS and would expect him to be hard to beat wherever he goes. We were very keen to follow him following his Apr 17 jump out where he finished 2nd to Our Playboy but was making very good ground late. He was away well in Heat 8 on Apr 24 but was restrained in the early stages to take up a trailing position out the back, doing his best work in the straight as he got the gaps and extended when asked, closing over the top of the leaders to win over the 1000m in average time for the morning. Expect to see this son of Almanzor over 1400m first up and getting over further the deeper he gets into the prep and think we can follow him.

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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners	Confidence - Comments
Geelong, Race 2
#4 SIERRA DE GREDOS (5) - M Price & M Kent Jnr	Medium. We (and the stable) were very keen on this guy on debut - Michael Kent did say in the pre-race interview that the handling of the track would be the difference between winning and placing, which he did neither and we're certain he hated that ground. He gets better ground here, sticks at 1400m and has that race experience as well. He's drawn nicely with barrier 5 and we were way too keen to be jumping off him considering the excuse he had on debut. Expecting a much improved performance here and he's certainly the one to beat. Hopefully a few of us are on at $3+ when we sent in the Telegram yesterday. Think he'll start ~$2.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Geelong, Race 3 #1 IMMORTALITY (7) - M Price & M Kent Jnr	BlackBook jump out comments: Another jump out win for the recently gelded IMMORTALITY, taking out Heat 8 on Apr 24 to back up his previous Apr 11 win. He’s been put under some slight pressure in both of his jump outs, which is a positive considering he’s had 78-weeks off since his debut performance as an early 2yo and like the fact that he’s responding to the riding and finishing off his jump outs. He can run well first up as a 3yo.
Cranbourne, Race 4 #6 MAMBO DANCER (3) - P Moody	BlackBook jump out comments: MAMBO DANCER looked solid in Heat 5 on Nov 22, closing nicely under her own steam with Jamie Kah in the saddle. The leader was off and gone at the top of the straight, but she just went through the motions quietly over the concluding stages as she cruised into 2nd place with a good gap to the rest of the field, the winner clocking slick time in the process. She had a previous jump out on Nov 15 that was run in similar fashion, also cruising to the line when 3rd, but this is also her fourth career prep without getting to the races. A $100k daughter of Rubick, she looks to have nice closing speed and moves well.

Geelong, Race 3

#1 IMMORTALITY (7) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

BlackBook jump out comments:

Another jump out win for the recently gelded IMMORTALITY, taking out Heat 8 on Apr 24 to back up his previous Apr 11 win. He’s been put under some slight pressure in both of his jump outs, which is a positive considering he’s had 78-weeks off since his debut performance as an early 2yo and like the fact that he’s responding to the riding and finishing off his jump outs. He can run well first up as a 3yo.

Cranbourne, Race 4

#6 MAMBO DANCER (3) - P Moody

BlackBook jump out comments:

MAMBO DANCER looked solid in Heat 5 on Nov 22, closing nicely under her own steam with Jamie Kah in the saddle. The leader was off and gone at the top of the straight, but she just went through the motions quietly over the concluding stages as she cruised into 2nd place with a good gap to the rest of the field, the winner clocking slick time in the process. She had a previous jump out on Nov 15 that was run in similar fashion, also cruising to the line when 3rd, but this is also her fourth career prep without getting to the races. A $100k daughter of Rubick, she looks to have nice closing speed and moves well.

Last Updated: 7:34am AEDT on Friday, 19th May 2023.

STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.

Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".

This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.

We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart

.pdf

Download PDF • 920KB