BlackBook - Friday, 18 November 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 18 November 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


MOONEE VALLEY - Race 3

OTHER

#10 WHITE RUSSIAN was horrible on debut as a 2yo, finishing 13L last over the 1400m but she did start a $3.90 SP favourite that day and was immediately put away following that run. Now a 3yo, the daughter of Fastnet Rock cruised to the line in a Oct 24 jump out prior to her win over the 1000m in Heat 18 on Nov 7. She was put under pressure here, so it was very encouraging to see her open up a gap on the field here and respond to the riding, especially over 1000m. Considering she was a $800k buy and the stable just purchased her full-brother for $300k last year, they and Coolmore clearly have an opinion of her and she’s better than what she produced on debut.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Moonee Valley, Race 3

#10 WHITE RUSSIAN (10) - C Maher & D Eustace

Medium.

The wide draw is the worry, having barrier 10 of 10 but she's jumped out super and she was a $3.90 SP fav on debut against the likes of Elliptical and Dashing.

Jump outs super and like that they were over 800m and 1000m latest. She just needs to find a spot and not be trapped wide to be very hard to beat.


We're worried about Cortes having beaten subsequent impressive maiden winner Unlimited Magic in his latest jump out and we also have Pink Beau Ty (see below) but he's a huge price. Holly Lolly is probably the other main danger and has that race fitness edge on these.


Not our favourite approach but this is a tough race and want to save our ass a little. We're going to back White Russian (~$3) and Pink Beau Ty ($51) for even returns and save on Cortes to breakeven.

As an example if you're staking to collect 4% / 4 units:

~1.5 units on White Russian to collect ~4 units

~0.1 units on Pink Beau Ty to collect ~5 units

~0.5 units on Cortes to collect ~2.2 units (breakeven)

This outlays 2.1 units and gives us a good result if White Russian or Pink Beau Ty win, but breakeven even if Cortes wins.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Moonee Valley, Race 3

#5 PINK BEAU TY (9) - B McGrath

WatchList jump out comments:

He had the race fitness, but PINK BEAU TY was super in his win of Heat 9 on Oct 24, really extending away as he was put under pressure. Not sure he quite handled the Heavy track on debut when beaten a long way back in 5th, so he can improve now second up.


Race comments:

See above for White Russian.

Last Updated: 8:20am on Friday, 18th November 2022.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 698x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 222x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.14 WIN $2.29 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1059x runners | 254x winners (24%) & 290x placings (51%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.12 WIN $3.01 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 35x runners | 23x wins (66%) & 7x placings (86%)

Medium Confidence: 65x runners | 28x wins (43%) & 17x placings (69%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 56x runners | 9x wins (16%) & 19x placings (50%)

Low Confidence: 11x runners | 3x wins (27%) & 3x placings (55%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB