Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 18 March 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
TERANG - Race 5
Will be very interested to see where #2 BATTLEGROUND pops up first up for the new Kane Harris stable. He’s a 5yo gelding with 1x win and 5x placings from 12x career starts, all of them in NSW and he was some reasonable form from back in 2019 that includes a 2nd placing in a Listed race at Gosford behind Hightail but beating home Splintex and Exhilirates. His win in Heat 12 on Feb 16 was slick, only his first jump out this preparation and being only 61-rated, he can certainly give a BM58 (and even a BM64) a shake first up. One to keep in mind.
Mentioned after his Feb 16 win, #2 BATTLEGROUND has had an additional two jump outs with a quiet 4th to Unflinching on Mar 2 followed by an easy win in Heat 3 on Mar 9. We’ll be following him into a BM58 first up (hopefully).
MOONEE VALLEY - Race 1
#3 FOUJITA SAN’s work past the line in his first jump on Mar 4 was worth noting. He then showed similar late closing speed in his big win in Heat 4 on Mar 11, responding to the riding and extending away to win with ease and really getting through the line. The 2yo son of Maurice was a $360k buy from the Easter Yearling sales and looks to move well. One to monitor.
*we had Zamborghini on debut who won very impressively and looks as though he will be hard to beat again here second up*
MOONEE VALLEY - Race 8
Races 1 to 4 at Terang are 2000m+ races followed by some BM58/BM64 races with no MDN's, so we're thin on BlackBook runners there. Moonee Valley is similar, no MDN races on the card so leaves us with not much to work with.
Terang, Race 6 - LAKE TAI
LAKE TAI is a half-brother to the Group 1 star The Bostonian… that horse loved the wet and suspect that this 5yo gelding is similar.
His last start rated -1.0, which is the best last start rating of the race and the third best peak rating of the race. He’s probably better over further, but resuming for the new stable of Smiley Chan here on the back of some really nice jump outs (the latest next to Quintello) might have him good enough to win this first up.
Our $7 early bet on Bet365 gets hit by big deductions of $0.28 and brings the odds down to $5.04, which is ridiculous considering he was backed into ~$5 and is still $5.50 - $6.00 everywhere post deductions... if you haven't backed, then it's probably a good thing and look to take the $6+ on TopSport.
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.
We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.
Total outlay is 1.00 units.
Terang, Race 6
LAKE TAI ~ 1.00 units WIN @ $6.00 (TopSport)
*our early bet at $7.00 on Bet365 comes down to $5.04 post deductions ($0.28)*
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +0.61 units at Recommend Price | +37.33 units at Betfair SP
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