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BlackBook - Friday, 17 March 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 17 March 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


SALE - Race 2

OTHER

Maher & Eustace have a had a few debutants on the back of quiet jump outs go well recently and #5 AOLANI looks to fit that bill, cruising to the line in 6th place in a Feb 13 jump out and likewise again in Heat 20 on Feb 27 over 1000m as the 3yo filly also cruised to the line but finished a lot closer to the winner. She looked to do it under her own steam in a nice bit of work.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Sale, Race 2

#5 AOLANI (8) - C Maher & D Eustace

Medium.

This isn’t a jockey/trainer combo that we usually see but Zac Spain has had 33 rides for Maher/Eustace for 10 wins (30.3% Win SR), so it’s generally a good one. It’s certainly a positive that the stablemate has been scratched from barrier 3 as well.

She was making ground on Dreamstone over 1000m in her latest JO and she won by 3.8L first up the other week…


Booboo Boogie is the obvious danger but didn’t think her jump outs were anything special, although D Oliver is on board from barrier 2 so she likely goes forward. The 12-start maiden in Lochend Amosa will likely go forward as well and even the 16-start maiden Robert The Puss could go forward with Craig Newitt on board where those two have a fitness advantage but have had their chance to break the maiden.


AOLANI looks the one to beat and while barrier 7 of 8 isn’t flash, it’s a chute start at Sale with a big straight so she’ll be fine wherever she gets to in the run and with that speed, she should get a lovely trail into it to come over the top late.

We can get ~$2.80 this morning and though that was about right, think she's more a $2-$2.50 (fav) chance.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Mount Gambier, Race 2

#5 RUN LIKE HELL (7) - M Raymond

BlackBook jump out comments:

Maddie Raymond’s 2yo filly RUN LIKE HELL was the pick of Heat 4 on Apr 7, travelling beautifully under a hold on the inside of Perisseuo who was ridden out and pushed throughout. She was a quiet 4th in a Nov 16 jump out behind older horses in Heyington Station before finishing 2nd on Dec 3 to the 3yo I See You Coming (who ran 2nd in a MDN first up) while defeating Chosen Miss (since 2nd and 1st in MDN’s) and Pocket Rox (since 4th, 4th and 1st in MDN’s). The Hellbent filly has had some nice jump outs with nice form and this was a lovely return - monitoring for another bit of work prior to debuting.


She's been unseen since this Jump Out on April 7 back in 2022...

Last Updated: 7:53am AEDT on Friday, 17th March 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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