BlackBook - Friday, 17 December 2021
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 17 December 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
MOE - Race 1
OTHER
Hoping to see #9 NO CRYING resume in a maiden following this 8 week let up after a run in town. This was a slick jump out by her, travelling wide throughout in behind the speed in Heat 10 on Dec 8 (purple) before peeling out to the outside rail and closing under her own steam. She looked as though she could’ve exploded if asked for an effort at any stage. Nice bit of work.
Big watch on #11 THE PUP following her jump out win in Heat 8 on Nov 22, defeating recent maiden winner Express Master. She had a previous jump out on Nov 8 where she showed good gate speed to lead along the rail but was hard held and never allowed to fully stride. This heat was similar, showing nice gate speed to lead along the rail but this time she was going way too quick for the rest of them and put a nice margin on most of the field. She was given some pushes late but did it comfortably enough to suggest she might have some talent there. One for the watch list.
MOE - Race 9
OTHER
#1 JUNGLE JIM is flying ahead of his return to the races, taking out Heat 5 on Dec 6 in the clear fastest time of the morning to back up his Nov 19 win ahead of subsequent maiden winner Swerving. He wasn’t great on debut but that was a heavy track, where the blinkers went on second up and he led to a big 2.5L win. Noting he didn’t have the blinkers on in the first jump out but did have them on in this heat.
YARRA VALLEY - Race 1
#13 LADY HILLARY (3) - L & T Corstens
The hidden gem from Heat 5 on Dec 6 is LADY HILLARY, who finished 2nd but would’ve won any other heat due to the slick time that Jungle Jim clocked. The 3yo filly sat in behind the speed of Jungle Jim here and went to the line relatively untouched ahead of some alright horses in Covert (3rd) and Amfissa (4th). She had the blinkers on in this heat, unlike her other jump outs on Oct 22 (when eased out the back) and Nov 12, when finishing alongside Midwest who came out and won a Yarra Valley maiden by 3.25L first up. She’s out of the mare Lady Antebellum who was a winner of 7 races and $239k herself while her 3yo Sebring daughter here looks to go alright herself. Can follow on debut.
OTHER
#1 ABOVE EVERAGE had them off the bit chasing in Heat 8 on Oct 6, jumping straight to the front over the 800m and never giving anything else a chance to get close to him despite never fully being asked. It’s only his first jump out this prep, he might be one to watch for.
A maiden win can’t be far away for #12 TRANQUIL BAY. Her record is slightly worrying, but she’s had excuses. She ran 3rd on debut before pulling up lame and being spelled. In her second prep she ran a 0.2L 2nd and a 0.8L 4th before striking a Heavy9 and Heavy10 track - she started less than $3 in 4 of her 6 career runs. Her return jump out on Nov 26 was quiet but good, while her 2nd in Heat 13 on Dec 6 was similar, quiet but well held and good. Doubt she’s a big price first up, but we can follow regardless.
YARRA VALLEY - Race 7
OTHER
#8 DANA POINT with one of the bigger jump out wins you’ll see, winning Heat 8 on Nov 30 over the 1000m in 58.96s by pretty much 10L. She’ll pretty much do the same at the races as she is a jump and run type, which suits the jump outs, but this was a big win in quick time.
MOONEE VALLEY - Race 2
OTHER
Dominate win by #9 RIOYUKI in Heat 8 on Dec 3 over the 1000m where she was a class above. She was probably outclassed last start at Flemington against a future superstar in Espiona. Taking her out, she was 2.15L off the 2nd horse, so she hasn’t gone that badly. Given a freshen up now, she can run well when she goes back to the races.
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OUR THOUGHTS
Moe, Race 1 - NO CRYING + THE PUP
NO CRYING has only had the one jump out but it was a really nice bit of work and she is coming off a 9-week let up so there would be some residual fitness with the tongue tie going on here. Her four runs last preparation rated +11.2, +7.5, +9.1 and +7.4, where a repeat of either of those would be good enough to win this. With form behind Niccolite, Vianello and Prowling, she looks to be the class runner of the race. Only query is on the 1000m being too short haven't never ran shorter than 1100m, especially at a tight turning Moe track, but still think she's the one to beat.
THE PUP has jumped out well and certainly well enough to go well here. Drawn very well with barrier 3 and looks one of the main dangers to NO CRYING. SQUARE CUT has jumped out super, he will almost certainly lead from barrier 6 and take a fair bit of catching - he brings in the best last start rating at +6.3.
The 1000m at Moe just doesn't look like it'll suit NO CRYING, so it's an interesting placement. Petrified of SQUARE CUT as well who will go forward and take some catching and THE PUP is certainly not without a chance. We've got NO CRYING on top as she looks the best horse in the race, it just doesn't look like the best race set up for the horse so we'll leave this with no bets.
Moe, Race 9 - JUNGLE JIM
He failed on debut but did get a Heavy8 track. His second run was super when the blinkers went on but he did have it very easily out in front in a small 5-horse field. He didn't beat much of a quality field either and the run rated only +12.9, which is the second worst last start rating coming into this.
His two Flemington jump outs have been absolutely super and this race sets up well for him. The tongue tie goes on and he draw's barrier 1 so he'll go straight to the front and get a comfortable lead along the rail with no other notable leaders. In saying that, it wouldn't surprise to see C Newitt go forward on WILD EXPRESS from barrier 4. Moe suits and he looks like he's worth a bet based on how he maps and how good his jump outs have been.
Yarra Valley, Race 1 - LADY HILLARY (+ TRANQUIL BAY + ABOVE EVERAGE)
Ratings wise, this looks a race between JOSEYLIN and TRANQUIL BAY. JOSEYLIN brings in the best last start rating at +5.8 along with the second best peak rating at +4.6, while TRANQUIL BAY brings in the second best last starting rating at +8.7 and the best peak rating at +0.5. The next best last start rating is +10.2, while TRANQUIL BAY’s worst career run is +8.7 so she only needs to repeat her form to be very competitive here. Her track gallop at Moonee Valley on Monday was super and she looks very well placed here with barrier 7 and Damien Thornton taking the ride.
LADY HILLARY was scratched from Kyneton on Thursday to run here with a much more favourable barrier 3. ABOVE EVERAGE has jumped out okay but doesn't quit have the race experience and form that a few of the others have and his latest official trial wasn't great.
The top three in the market are clearly above the rest of the field, being JOSEYLIN, TRANQUIL BAY and LADY HILLARY. Going to back in our runners and play TRANQUIL BAY with a saver on LADY HILLARY for a low confidence play.
Yarra Valley, Race 7 - DANA POINT
A 1000m BM58 first up at a tight turning track like Yarra Valley suits. She brings in the best last start rating at +5.2 and can run well here first up but no bets from us.
Moonee Valley, Race 2 - RIOYUKI
Ratings wise, she looks well placed here. Her three runs this preparation have rated +4.8, +6.0 and -4.1 with that last start rating of -4.1 being the best last start rating in the race as well as the best peak rating in the race. That run was behind a very very talented Espiona, so there is no wondering why the run rated so well and think her previous two starts are more representative of what she is capable of. She can run well here but no bets from us.
Canterbury, Race 3 - BOOMSONG
We were on him on debut (1.50 units @ $4.00) where he was well backed in to start favourite but was just nabbed on the line to finish 2nd. He didn't have it all go his way though, having to go forward from the wide gate before being pressured in the middle stages around the turn but still held on late.
He gets on a dryer track now after the Heavy8 track on debut. He draw's a lot friendlier with barrier 4 so he should be able to find the front, and hopefully the rail, a lot easier here and get a softer lead. And most importantly, he gets the blinkers on as he steps up from 1000m to 1100m with the race experience and fitness now under his belt.
TRIFACCIA has had some support but but she will get back, especially from barrier 10. HAMAKI is probably the main danger here second up after running a close 2nd. Ratings wise, these three are at the top with TRIFACCIA (-0.8), HAMAKI (-0.5) and BOOMSONG (-0.1).
We're going to back BOOMSONG in to go well second up in a lot more favourable race.
OUR BETS
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
Total outlay is 4.50 units.
Moe, Race 9
JUNGLE JIM ~ 1.00 units WIN @ Betfair SP
Yarra Valley, Race 1
TRANQUIL BAY ~ 1.15 units WIN @ $3.80 (Bet365 at 9:35am)
LADY HILLARY ~ 0.35 units WIN @ $4.60 (TopSport at 9:35am)
Canterbury, Race 3
BOOMSONG ~ 2.00 units WIN @ $3.00 (TAB)
Overall: +2.76 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).
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