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BlackBook - Friday, 16 June 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Friday, 16 June 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


GEELONG - Race 2

OTHER

The jockey looked like he was just holding on as PRINCE SONIC went to the line for victory in Heat 2 on May 11. The 3yo gelding jumped cleanly to sit outside the leader throughout this jump out but it was his work late as the leader was put under pressure but he just idled up on the outside and closed superbly without ever actually being asked for an effort, clocking the second fastest 800m time of the morning in the process. Hard to get any gauge from his first jump out at Warrnambool on Apr 27 but he was given a good hit out there and really asked to go through the line, which would’ve brought him on for this quiet jump out. Mark O'Donnell only has the two horses in work but this was a nice jump out so certainly want to keep an eye on him for his debut.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Geelong, Race 2

#8 PRINCE SONIC (6) - M O'donnell

*LATE SCRATCHING*


Low/Medium

This is a very solid maiden with plenty of chances. Not surprised that NOKHBAH is the favourite considering her latest trial win - she is a nice mover and did it nicely. KINGWELL is well bred (younger brother of Extreme Choice) and has the race experience from a solid debut. FIRE POWER has also jumped out well, as we mention.


There was something about this gelding's JO's though and think he can give this a real shake so at the ~$9 as opposed to the ~$2 for Nokhbah, we're happy to have a bet on him. John Allen takes the ride and he's drawn super, will get every chance.


It's a tough race where we have a few runners so we'll stake down and bet to collect 2%/2u (being ½ stake).


Also unsure what he does price wise so we can play ½ now at $8.50/$9 and ½ on the SP.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Geelong, Race 2

#2 FIRE POWER (3) - M, W & J Hawkes

BlackBook jump out comments:

A couple of solid jump outs now from FIRE POWER, the first a 2nd placing to Champagne In Lace (since 2nd MDN) on May 26 where he cruised to the line before his work in Heat 1 on Jun 2 where he went to the line with Barbie’s Fox, Packing Waltham and Burnt Orange while behind Poland. He didn’t have the blinkers on in either jump outs and he certainly needs to improve from his 4x career runs so far, which he may have on the back of this.

Geelong, Race 2

#13 NOKHBAH (5) - B & JD Hayes

BlackBook jump out comments:

A massive 6L win over 1000m for NOKHBAH in Heat 21 on Jun 5 while clocking the fastest time of the morning as the un-raced 4yo I Am Invincible mare stamped herself as a must follow on debut. Her first trial at Tatura was quite underwhelming, but her Bendigo jump out was super and this bit of work was obviously visually very impressive as well. She’s a nice mover.

Last Updated: 8:00am AEDT on Friday, 16th June 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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